ORB 5/15 for liquid US names — confirmation rails I won't skip

[Fairman]

Opening range breakout (ORB) for liquid US names: the version I actually run, without the YouTube costume.

I define ORB5 and ORB15 in exchange time, not laptop time. A break alone is not the trade. I want volume confirmation and a written invalidation, typically a reclaim back inside the range and hold, not a single tick.

Rails that keep it from turning into chase:

- If the first break is already extended beyond a predefined ATR fraction, I skip rather than marketable-chase.
- SPY/QQQ context must agree or size is cut or skipped.
- Thin names get a more conservative map. ORB on garbage liquidity is how you buy the vacuum.
- One attempt. A failed break means wait for new structure, don't revenge the same range.

A worked example on ORB5. The name trades $76.10 to $76.48 between 09:30 and 09:35 ET. The range is 38 cents. My extension rule, written premarket, says skip if the first break has already run more than a set fraction of the name's typical move beyond the range high before I can get a limit order in. At 09:38 it pushes through $76.48 with a clear jump in prints, SPY is holding above its opening range too, so context agrees. I bid $76.51 and fill at $76.52. Invalidation is a reclaim back inside the range and hold, so I'm using $76.40 as the line, 12 cents below entry. Planned size at 400 shares is about $48 of risk. If it runs to $76.70 before I can get filled, the break is extended and I let it go. I don't chase it with a market order.

If it breaks, fails back to $76.38 and holds there, I'm out and that range is done for me. No second ORB5 attempt. ORB15 is a separate plan with its own range, not a do-over.

Failure modes:

- Drawing the range in local time and being off by a bar or an hour.
- Treating a single wick above the range as the break.
- Taking ORB on a name with a 5-cent spread and a 20-cent range. The spread eats the math.
- Ignoring a macro release at 10:00 ET that lands in the middle of the ORB15 window.

When to skip ORB for the day: earnings binary on the name, index in shock, spread wider than my live max at 09:35, or a range so wide the stop doesn't fit my size cap.

ORB is a condition framework. The playbook still needs trigger, invalidation, and size before the click.

Diagram: ORB5/ORB15 timeline + the confirmation rails.