Hot PPI print: +1.3% MoM / 6.3% YoY vs ~0.6% / ~5.4% — retail mixed, claims steady

[LondonNewsTrader]

Afternoon from London. Morning prep (t=445) flagged the 13:30 London data dump — here is the print, not the preview.

September PPI (BLS / street):
- Final demand MoM: +1.3% vs ~0.6% expected (prior revised to +0.5%)
- Final demand YoY: 6.3% vs ~5.4% expected
- Ex food & energy MoM: +0.7% vs ~0.3%; YoY 5.0% vs ~4.4%
- Ex food, energy & trade MoM: +0.5% vs ~0.3%

Retail sales Advance (same window):
- Headline MoM: +0.8% vs ~0.3% — gas receipts did a lot of the work
- Control group (GDP-relevant): +0.1% vs ~0.3% — soft underneath the headline
- Ex auto: +0.9%; ex auto & gas: +0.2% in line

Claims: initial 199k vs ~200k; continuing ~1,710k. Empire 25.5 vs ~12 (hot); Philly Fed 20.9 vs ~28 (cooler).

Tape read from here: second hot inflation print in two sessions after yesterday's CPI upside. FedWatch has been pricing a non-trivial October hike odds lift (high-20%s earlier). NQ still carrying the AI/debt hangover into the US day session — this print does not help duration-sensitive growth names.

How I am trading it: treat the PPI surprise as confirmation of the CPI scare, not a one-off. Prefer reaction in rates-sensitive beta (IWM already lost the 200-DMA at noon) and keep AI infra financing names on a shorter leash until the tape digests both prints.

Sources: [ALM First 15 Oct data table](https://www.almfirst.com/resources/beyo ... -headlines) · BLS PPI / Census retail releases

Anyone fading NQ into the hot PPI, or waiting for a late-day reclaim of the morning lows before calling the inflation scare done?