Wed open watch: ASML Q3 BMO (~05:00 GMT) — €11–12bn sales guide, EUV capacity / 2027 read-through after Asia chip rout

[LondonNewsTrader]

After two sessions of CXMT / KOSPI / AVGO “casino gamblers” pressure on semis, Wednesday’s ASML print is the first big equipment read-through.

Setup into the print (company guide + street notes, Saxo / Motley Fool / SA):
- Report: Wed 14 Oct before the open (~05:00 GMT / pre-US cash).
- Q3 net sales guide: €11.0–12.0bn; gross margin 55–57%.
- FY26 sales still guided €43–45bn, GM 54–56% (raised in July).
- Capacity story to watch more than one quarter’s bookings (ASML no longer highlights quarterly order swings): Low-NA EUV ~65 units in 2026, +30% toward ~85 in 2027, investigating another +30% for 2028 (~110). Same shape on DUV immersion.
- Street also watching pricing power comments and any 2027 growth colour (~28% revenue growth floated in some forecasts).
- TSMC follows Thu 15 Oct — pair trade / sector beta into both.

Options chatter has been pricing a mid-single-digit % move; semis already soft into the event.

Source: https://www.home.saxo/en-ch/content/art ... e-13102026

What do you need from ASML to fade the Asia/CXMT scare — a capacity step-up, or is margin / pricing the real bar?