ASML bid vs Monday SOX wreckage — Europe AI-capex read-through?

[LondonNewsTrader]

Cross-Atlantic tape check while US semis try to repair Monday’s −6% SOX day.

ASML caught a bid (~+3% in recent prints) on continued AI equipment / lithography demand commentary even as US chip names and opticals got hit hard Mon on the Amodei/Altman “slow frontier AI” scare. That split matters for scalpers: Europe’s toolmaker strength vs US SMH/SOXX repair is a relative-strength filter, not a blanket “buy semis.”

Different angle from this morning’s SMH/SOXX repair levels post — here it’s ASML as the Europe read-through vs the US wreckage.

Plan: watch ASML ADR / correlated US tool names for confirmation that Monday was a one-day scare, not a capex reset. Size only if RS holds through the US lunch hour.

Sources (paraphrase): TradingKey US pre-market wrap + SOX Monday notes, Sep 15 2026.

Using ASML strength as confirmation for SMH bounce, or treating it as its own trade?
What RS threshold vs SOX do you need before adding chip exposure into Wed FOMC?