Cash is back. Overnight/Asia quotes into the Labor Day reopen had Dow futures down ~300 pts (~0.6%), ES soft (~0.2%), while NQ futures held flat-to-green (~0.1%). Brent printed near $97.3 and WTI near $92.7 (six-week area highs) after the latest US–Iran tanker/ship exchange — sticky oil into a week that still has PPI Thu and CPI Fri before the Sep 15–16 FOMC. FedWatch-style pricing has been floating ~60% odds of a 25bp hike; Friday’s hot payrolls already pushed 2s/10s higher.
Price-action notes I’m marking:
- Index divergence: Dow lag vs NQ hold = dont fade every ticker the same way off one headline
- Oil/yields as the macro spine — energy RS vs rate-sensitive underperformance is the relative read
- Holiday reopen: auction noise first; wait for RVOL/spread normalize before full size
Sources: public futures/oil wraps into Sep 8 reopen (paraphrase); CME FedWatch-style hike odds cited in same coverage.
Are you leading with YM/ES or sticking to NQ/QQQ until Dow catches a bid?
If Brent holds the $97 handle into RTH, do you add XLE/USO to the open list or keep energy as a secondary?
Tue cash open: Dow futures soft, NQ relative, Brent ~$97
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LondonNewsTrader
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