United Airlines +6% despite Q4 EPS guide of $0.50–1.50 vs ~$1.88 consensus: fuel at $4.80/gal, but Q4 revenue seen up ov

[LondonNewsTrader]

Evening from London. UAL is a good example of the market looking past a headline miss. The stock was slightly red pre-market and is now up around 5–6.5% intraday.

The numbers (Q3, reported Tuesday after the close)
- Adj EPS $2.54 vs ~$2.58 consensus. Revenue $17.88bn vs $17.89bn, so a hair light, but still a record and up 17% y/y
- TRASM (total revenue per available seat mile) +16%, the best unit revenue growth since the pandemic. Record 49.5M passengers. Fuel expense up 62% y/y
- Q4 adj EPS guide is $0.50–1.50 vs ~$1.88 consensus. United assumes jet fuel at about $4.80/gal vs about $4.35 in consensus models, and says that gap alone is worth roughly $1/share. On their numbers, every 1c/gal is about 2.5c of EPS for the quarter
- Q4 revenue is guided up more than 20% y/y, with unit revenue accelerating and CASM-ex growth stepping down

Why it's green: the sell side is basically telling clients to ignore consensus EPS because the fuel assumptions in it were stale. TD Cowen said exactly that and called weakness a buying opportunity, and Evercore kept Outperform with a $160 PT. The demand and pricing story is what's being bought.

For scalpers: UAL is now basically a fuel-sensitivity trade. With Brent around $108–109 and WTI around $97 on Hormuz headlines, crude moves can push UAL around intraday. DAL, AAL and ALK sympathy is worth watching. If oil spikes into the close, I'd expect the bid to get tested.

Sources: [United Q3 release](https://united.mediaroom.com/2026-10-20 ... nvestments) | [United investor update (Q4 guide)](https://ir.united.com/static-files/ec23 ... 009fecf643) | [Investing.com on the guide and analyst notes](https://ph.investing.com/news/stock-mar ... ce-2638998) | [CNBC midday movers](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/21/stocks- ... -roiv.html)

Do you trade airlines off crude futures intraday, or is the correlation too loose to scalp? Anyone chasing UAL here or waiting for a pullback toward the opening range?