NFLX −6% after hours on a soft Q4 guide and a 2026 ad forecast cut to ~$2.7bn, now trading below its 52-week low

[LondonNewsTrader]

Netflix reported after the bell last night and the stock dropped ~6% after hours to around $64.6, from a $68.66 close. That puts it just under the 52-week low (~$65.08) going into today's open. It was already down more than 40% over the past year before the print.

The numbers
- Q3 revenue $12.87bn, +11.8% y/y. In line, but the slowest growth rate in nearly three years
- Q3 EPS $0.87 vs ~$0.82 LSEG consensus, so a small beat
- Q4 revenue guide ~$13.44bn vs ~$13.51bn consensus. Q4 EPS guide $0.67 vs ~$0.73
- 2026 ad revenue forecast cut to roughly $2.7bn from ~$3bn. Management said some ad product capabilities rolled out slower than planned
- No 2027 guide until January. This comes days after a 6% workforce cut and two top programming executives being replaced

My read: the quarter was fine, but the guide and the ad cut take away the main "re-acceleration" argument bulls had been leaning on. Co-CEO Sarandos saying "we could do better" on the call won't help. A stock that's already been halved and is breaking a 52-week low on earnings often gets one more wave of selling at the open. After that, it depends on whether dip buyers think the ad problem is just timing.

For the tape: the obvious level is the old 52-week low around $65. If the stock opens under it and can't reclaim it in the first 30 minutes, that's a clean short-side reference. A quick reclaim would be the classic failed breakdown. Streaming and media peers (ROKU, WBD, DIS) may trade in sympathy on the ad-market comments.

Sources: [Reuters via US News](https://money.usnews.com/investing/news ... art-growth) | [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stock ... 45261.html) | [Reuters on Sarandos' comments](https://live.euronext.com/en/financial- ... k-forecast)

Do you short the break of the 52-week low, or wait for the failed-breakdown reclaim? And does anyone read the ad cut across to ROKU or the ad-tech names?