CLF ~+10–13%: Q3 adj EPS $0.28 beat, EBITDA $612M above guide — Q4 EBITDA ~$715M, 2027 >$4bn targeted

[LondonNewsTrader]

Biggest single-name gap on my tape this morning: Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) ripping higher after Q3.

Numbers (company release, 11:00 London):
- Adj EPS $0.28 vs FactSet ~$0.21–0.24 consensus; GAAP $0.26
- Revenue $5.6bn, a shade light vs ~$5.7bn
- Adj EBITDA $612M (strongest quarter in three years), above the $575M guide given three months ago and vs $286M in Q2
- Shipments 4.2M net tons; ASP ~$1,177/t (+14% y/y)
- Liquidity $3.2bn; management still pointing at sub-2.5x net debt/EBITDA by mid-2027

Forward: Q4 adj EBITDA guided ~$715M despite seasonality/maintenance. For 2027 they floated adj EBITDA above $4bn on renewed contracts and higher price decks. CEO Goncalves is framing this as the best steel price environment in three years, with mills at full utilization — Canada/Stelco labour politics remain a separate headline risk from last week.

Tape: CNBC had it +10%+ pre-market; early cash prints were in the +11–13% zone around $13.50–13.80 vs Friday's ~$12.12. Worth watching X vs peers (NUE, STLD, X) to see if this is a CLF-specific beat or a steel-complex bid.

Sources: [Cleveland-Cliffs Q3 release](https://www.clevelandcliffs.com/investo ... 26-results) | [CNBC premarket movers](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/19/stocks- ... -amzn.html)

Are you trading the CLF gap as a hold-through-open or fading the first 15 minutes? And does the $715M Q4 EBITDA print change how you size the steel complex into week-ahead earnings?