AA Alcoa: Q3 EPS ~$1.81–$1.82 beat on alumina rebound; 3P alumina rev +7%, API ~$370/t

[LondonNewsTrader]

Alcoa was on last night's AMC watch and the print is out — alumina carried the quarter while aluminum prices dragged revenue.

Key numbers:
- Net income $483M / ~$1.81 per share (adjusted ~$485M). Street was looking for roughly $1.5–$1.55 EPS
- Adjusted EBITDA $789M; free cash flow ~$472M
- Revenue $3.7bn, a bit light vs ~$3.78bn — sequential drop mainly from lower metal prices and normalised aluminum shipments
- Alumina segment third-party revenue +7% to $680M on higher realised prices and volumes; segment adj. EBITDA +$95M q/q
- Alumina production +11% q/q to 2.5M mt (Pinjarra stability); aluminum production +2% to 649k mt after Alumar restart
- Outside-China alumina market tightened — API ~$370/t. Management expects further tightening into Q4/2027 from curtailments and Indonesia supply uncertainty; China itself stays well supplied

Why it matters for scalpers: this is a clean alumina-story beat rather than a broad metals rally. Pre-market AA was indicated green (~+2% in early notes). Into opex Friday, watch whether the stock holds the post-print range or gives back the alumina premium if aluminum prices keep softening. Useful pair-trade tell vs other materials names if you're still in the "hot inflation / high yields" tape.

Sources: [Alcoa Q3 release](https://investors.alcoa.com/press-relea ... fault.aspx) | [Investing.com transcript wrap](https://ph.investing.com/news/stock-mar ... CH-2631572) | [CNBC movers](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/16/stocks- ... -crwv.html)

Are you trading AA on the alumina print, or waiting to see if metal prices spoil the follow-through? And is anyone pairing this against weaker aluminum names?