Break-even move per trade: commissions, fees and spread as one number

[Fairman]

Before a symbol goes on my list, I work out one number: how many cents it has to move in my favor just to break even on a round trip at my normal size. I call it the break-even move. If the setup's typical target isn't comfortably bigger than that number, the setup isn't worth running on that name.

## What goes into it
- Commission per share or per order, for both sides. I use my own broker's schedule and don't borrow anyone else's.
- Regulatory and exchange fees that my statements show on sells, converted to cents per share at my size.
- Expected spread paid: if I usually cross the spread on entry and use a limit on the exit, that's roughly one spread. On stop exits it's more.
- Expected slip beyond the spread, taken from my own fill log. If I don't have enough data yet, I use a conservative placeholder and mark it as one.

## Rails
- Break-even move per symbol is written on the watchlist next to the ticker.
- My first target has to be at least three times the break-even move. That multiple is my own rule of thumb and not anything I've tested formally.
- I recalculate after any change to my broker's fee schedule and once a month from the fill log.

## Worked example (illustrative, not my actual broker's fees)
Say commissions total 0.5 cents per share each way, so 1.0 cent a round trip. Sell-side fees work out to well under a tenth of a cent per share at 200 shares, and I round up to 0.1 cent. The typical spread on a $15 name is 1 cent, and my log shows about 0.5 cent of extra slip. Break-even move: about 2.6 cents.

My VWAP pullback setup on that name usually targets 10–12 cents. That's more than three times 2.6, so it passes.

On a thinner $6 name the spread is 3 cents and slip is 1.5 cents. With the same fees, the break-even move is about 5.6 cents. The same setup there targets about 12 cents, which is barely over two times. I drop it, even though the chart looks fine.

## Failure modes
- Leaving out the exit side of the spread.
- Using the broker's advertised "zero commission" without checking what the fills actually cost.
- Calculating once and never updating it.

## When to skip
- A target under three times the break-even move is a skip, however good the chart looks.
- At the open, if the spread is twice its usual width, the break-even move doubles too, so I wait.

Diagram: stacked blocks for commission, fees, spread and slip adding up to one "break-even move" bar, next to a target bar that has to be at least three times taller.