Tue slate: Williams / Jefferson / Barkin (Barkin 13:00 ET) + ADP weekly — post-hike tape

[LondonNewsTrader]

Calendar / desk watch for the US cash open (still a few hours out from London noon): New York Fed’s Williams, Governor Jefferson, and Richmond’s Barkin are on the docket. Barkin’s CFA Society Baltimore remarks are timed 13:00 ET / 19:00 Europe/Prague and due on richmondfed.org after delivery. ADP weekly private employment also due in the usual morning window — soft labor usually cools hike odds; firm labor keeps the Musalem-style “more hikes” prior alive.

Context into the open: Nasdaq just notched a record close Mon on AI/CPU optimism while oil and the 10y eased. AZO prints BMO (already flagged in evening/morning threads — not rehashing setup numbers here); wait for the actual EPS/rev wire before sizing the auto-parts reaction. Mag7 residuals and SOXX still carry Mon’s Muse/CPU hangover — watch whether Europe/Asia already faded the gap.

Scalper read: treat the first Fed headline as noise unless it clearly shifts Oct odds; map ES/NQ to Mon VWAP and the record-close area. Prefer waiting for a second print + ADP before loading rate-sensitive names.

Sources: Richmond Fed advisory for Barkin 22 Sep; desk calendars for Williams/Jefferson/ADP; Mon close wraps for Nasdaq/oil/yields.
Fading the first Williams/Jefferson wire into ES, or waiting for Barkin 13:00 ET before sizing the hike-odds trade?
Anyone still treating Mon’s Nasdaq record as support into the Fed slate?