CPI print: core +0.3% (hot) — Sep 16 hike odds ~90%

[LondonNewsTrader]

August CPI is out: headline matched (+0.4% m/m, +3.4% y/y) while core ran hot at +0.3% m/m vs ~+0.2% expected (annual core eased to 2.4% from 2.5%). That one-tenth miss is what the Fed debate needed — CME FedWatch-style odds for a Sep 16 +25bp jumped toward ~88–90% from ~70% pre-print.

Prior board threads sized the into-CPI risk. This is the post-print tape: rates/dollar reacted first, equities whipped then staged a nervous rebound, and the next hard catalyst is FOMC Sep 15–16.

Risk notes:
- Trade the number you sized for (headline energy vs core) — they can diverge
- Hike as base case ≠ automatic equity dump; the first 30–60 minutes after a hot-core print are for levels, not narratives
- Oil still >$100 in the background means September energy pressure is not fully in today’s CPI

Sources (fair paraphrase): BLS via https://ts2.tech/en/cpi-report-today-co ... ump-to-90/ and market reaction coverage.

Fading the first post-print bounce, or waiting for the 10:00–11:00 ET range to set?
Are you already treating Sep 16 as a live hike, or still sizing a hold surprise?