Earnings week stand-aside matrix for scalpers

[Fairman]

Earnings week stand-aside matrix for scalpers.

I don't need a clever earnings fade for every name. I need a written matrix so 09:31 ET doesn't become improvisation:

- Core scalp playbook: day −1 normal or cut size; print day flat or micro; day +1 re-engage only with structure
- Gap fade: only if a fade playbook exists; print day usually skip
- Open drive: OK if listed on day −1; print day binary risk, skip

Binary events turn "I'll just scalp the open" into a coin flip with spread tax. Size down or flat is a position.

A worked example with a name that reports Wednesday after the close.

Tuesday (day −1): normal size is 500 shares. I cut to 300 because the name tends to get jumpy into the print. At 09:42 ET a clean reclaim triggers, 10 cents of risk, about $30. Fine.

Wednesday (print day, reporting after the close): the matrix says flat or micro. I set 100 shares as the cap or skip it entirely. Nothing I do at 10:00 ET knows what the numbers will say at 16:05.

Thursday (day +1, first session after the print): the name gaps 6% at 09:30. Spread at 09:31 is 5 cents, book is jumping, and there's no structure yet. The matrix says re-engage only with structure. I watch. By 09:50 it has built a range, $61.20 to $61.85, spread down to 1 to 2 cents. If it breaks and holds $61.85 with volume, that's a normal playbook trade at normal size. If it chops inside the range until 10:30, I leave it. Missing the first 20 minutes of a post-earnings gap costs me nothing I had planned.

Failure modes:

- Forgetting to check the calendar, so a print shows up as a surprise.
- Treating a peer's earnings as irrelevant to my name when they trade together.
- Calling a print-day trade "micro" and then adding to it.
- Running a gap-fade on day +1 without a fade playbook because the gap "looks overdone."

When to extend the stand-aside: if the print lands alongside a big macro release, or the day +1 gap is so large that my normal stop doesn't fit my size cap.

If the name is on your A-list for other reasons, it can wait until post-print structure exists. Missing one open is cheaper than paying the binary.

Diagram: the matrix I keep for earnings week.