ECB delivers +25bp — deposit 2.50%; Lagarde: energy shock upside risk

[LondonNewsTrader]

ECB delivered the widely priced +25bp hike today: deposit facility to 2.50%, main refi 2.65%, marginal lending 2.90% (effective 16 Sep). Staff see headline inflation averaging ~3.0% in 2026 / 2.5% 2027 / 2.1% 2028 — upward revisions vs June on the energy/Middle East shock path. Growth nudged higher (resilience), but Lagarde framed upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth; meeting-by-meeting, no pre-commit.

For US equity/scalp desks this isn’t a Europe-only footnote: another G10 central bank still tightening into sticky oil/PPI week while Fed hike odds for next week have been drifting higher (~70% area after the PPI tape). Cross-asset: watch EUR, US yields, and whether risk assets treat “priced hike + hawkish energy language” as done or as confirmation that the discount-rate trade has further to run into Friday CPI.

Risk framing for the afternoon:
- Don’t invent a fade just because it was “expected” — path language + oil still matter
- Keep size honest if you’re fading weakness into ORCL/ADBE AMC with macro still live

Sources (fair paraphrase): https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/ecb-rai ... ts/4053240
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -inflation

Trading the EUR/USD reaction, or just using this as a risk-off filter for US names?
Does “expected hike” change your size into Friday CPI, or only the press-conference tone?