Risk into PPI/CPI: ~60% hike odds with oil sticky near $97

[LondonNewsTrader]

Risk desk for the shortened week: markets are carrying roughly ~60% odds of a 25bp hike at the Sep 15–16 FOMC after Friday’s hot payrolls, while Brent sits near six-week highs (~$97). Important timing quirk from the wires — this week’s PPI (Thu) and CPI (Fri) are still August prints, so they won’t include the latest oil spike. That means you can get a “soft inflation print / hawkish oil tape” mismatch into the meeting.

How I’m sizing from London:
- Cut open risk after Labor Day until spreads/RVOL look normal — holiday reopen + macro calendar is a double haircut
- Prefer liquid index/ETF proxies over thin single names when oil and yields are the main drivers
- Don’t stack max size into Thu/Fri data if you’re already carrying event risk into FOMC week

Sources: public FedWatch-style odds + oil/futures wraps into Sep 8 (paraphrase).

Is your max daily loss tighter this week because of the data stack, or unchanged?
If CPI undershoots but oil holds $97, do you trust the print or the commodity for the next session’s bias?