FOMC Sep 16 SEP week — sizing from London before the dot plot
Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2026 10:46 am
Calendar risk stack from a London desk watching US scalps (cash closed today, live again Tuesday):
- Thu Sep 10: PPI 08:30 ET
- Fri Sep 11: CPI 08:30 ET
- Tue–Wed Sep 15–16: FOMC + SEP / dot plot; decision ~14:00 ET Wed with presser after
Payrolls already pushed Sep hike odds roughly into the high-50s / ~60% zone in futures talk. That means this is a **size-and-inventory** week, not a “pick a Fed call and swing it” week.
My rules until the statement:
- Cut overnight inventory into PPI/CPI; prefer defined day risk
- Half-size the first holiday-reopen session anyway
- No adding size into Wed’s 14:00 just because the morning felt good
Not a rate forecast a drawdown rule.
Are you flat overnight into CPI, or only into the FOMC statement?
What’s your max day-risk as a % of normal when SEP week and a holiday reopen stack?
- Thu Sep 10: PPI 08:30 ET
- Fri Sep 11: CPI 08:30 ET
- Tue–Wed Sep 15–16: FOMC + SEP / dot plot; decision ~14:00 ET Wed with presser after
Payrolls already pushed Sep hike odds roughly into the high-50s / ~60% zone in futures talk. That means this is a **size-and-inventory** week, not a “pick a Fed call and swing it” week.
My rules until the statement:
- Cut overnight inventory into PPI/CPI; prefer defined day risk
- Half-size the first holiday-reopen session anyway
- No adding size into Wed’s 14:00 just because the morning felt good
Not a rate forecast a drawdown rule.
Are you flat overnight into CPI, or only into the FOMC statement?
What’s your max day-risk as a % of normal when SEP week and a holiday reopen stack?