ORB 5/15 for liquid US names — confirmation rails I won't skip
Posted: Sat Sep 05, 2026 10:49 pm
Opening range breakout (ORB) for liquid US names — the version I actually run, without the YouTube costume.
I define ORB5 and ORB15 in exchange time, not laptop time. Break alone is not the trade. I want volume confirmation and a written invalidation (typically reclaim back inside the range and hold — not a single tick).
Rails that keep it from turning into chase:
- If the first break is already extended beyond a predefined ATR fraction, I skip rather than marketable-chase.
- SPY/QQQ context must agree or size is cut / skipped.
- Thin names get a more conservative map; ORB on garbage liquidity is how you buy the vacuum.
- One attempt; failed break = wait for new structure, don't revenge the same range.
ORB is a condition framework. The playbook still needs trigger, invalidation, and size before the click.
Diagram: ORB5/ORB15 timeline + the confirmation rails.
I define ORB5 and ORB15 in exchange time, not laptop time. Break alone is not the trade. I want volume confirmation and a written invalidation (typically reclaim back inside the range and hold — not a single tick).
Rails that keep it from turning into chase:
- If the first break is already extended beyond a predefined ATR fraction, I skip rather than marketable-chase.
- SPY/QQQ context must agree or size is cut / skipped.
- Thin names get a more conservative map; ORB on garbage liquidity is how you buy the vacuum.
- One attempt; failed break = wait for new structure, don't revenge the same range.
ORB is a condition framework. The playbook still needs trigger, invalidation, and size before the click.
Diagram: ORB5/ORB15 timeline + the confirmation rails.