Spreads: Open vs Midday — Measure Once
Posted: Sat Sep 05, 2026 2:09 pm
If your backtest assumes midday spreads at 09:31, your expectancy is fan fiction.
I killed a "3¢ edge" setup by measuring OPEN15 spreads once. Median was 6¢. Setup wasn't broken. The bucket was. Felt obvious after. Wasn't obvious before the sheet.
### One-time measurement drill (per watchlist name)
For each ticker, sample:
Repeat across **5 sessions**. Store median spread by bucket.
### Worked mini-example
### Use in playbook
| Bucket | Max marketable chase | Preferred order type |
|--------|----------------------|----------------------|
| OPEN15 | smaller / none | limits more often |
| AM | normal | per setup |
| LUNCH | often skip | — |
| PM | normal | per setup |
### Strategy implication
Mean-reversion that needs 3¢ edge dies if median open spread is 6¢. Skip the bucket, change order type, or admit the setup is midday-only.
### Maintenance
Re-measure when ADV collapses, you change broker route, or earnings week liquidity shifts. Old spread tables are how quiet accounts bleed.
Post anonymized median tables. Helps the board more than another broker rant.
Have you measured OPEN15 vs midday spreads on your top 3 names?
What bucket do you refuse to take marketable orders in?
Anyone's "edge" disappear after an honest spread table?
How often do you refresh the table — monthly, or only after pain?
I killed a "3¢ edge" setup by measuring OPEN15 spreads once. Median was 6¢. Setup wasn't broken. The bucket was. Felt obvious after. Wasn't obvious before the sheet.
### One-time measurement drill (per watchlist name)
For each ticker, sample:
Code: Select all
time_et, bid, ask, spread_cents, last, notes
09:31
09:45
10:30
12:00
15:30
### Worked mini-example
Code: Select all
Ticker XYZ median spread_cents
OPEN15: 6
AM: 3
LUNCH: 4
PM: 2
Setup edge estimate after costs: ~4
Conclusion: OPEN15 marketable entries are structurally disadvantaged → limits only or skip bucket
| Bucket | Max marketable chase | Preferred order type |
|--------|----------------------|----------------------|
| OPEN15 | smaller / none | limits more often |
| AM | normal | per setup |
| LUNCH | often skip | — |
| PM | normal | per setup |
### Strategy implication
Mean-reversion that needs 3¢ edge dies if median open spread is 6¢. Skip the bucket, change order type, or admit the setup is midday-only.
### Maintenance
Re-measure when ADV collapses, you change broker route, or earnings week liquidity shifts. Old spread tables are how quiet accounts bleed.
Post anonymized median tables. Helps the board more than another broker rant.
Have you measured OPEN15 vs midday spreads on your top 3 names?
What bucket do you refuse to take marketable orders in?
Anyone's "edge" disappear after an honest spread table?
How often do you refresh the table — monthly, or only after pain?