SPOT up 5–10% despite an EPS miss (€2.48 vs ~€2.80): Q4 operating income guide €820M above Street, 306M subs, 10M net ad
Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2026 2:24 pm
Spotify is a good example of the market looking past the headline EPS this morning.
The numbers (company release / Reuters)
- Q3 revenue €4.97bn (+16% y/y, +14% cc), roughly in line with ~€4.98bn expected
- Operating income €672M, in line. Gross margin 33.0%, up 136 bps y/y
- EPS €2.48 vs ~€2.80 expected. That's the miss
- Premium subs 306M (+9% y/y, +6M in the quarter, 1M above their own guide). MAUs 788M (+11% y/y), on guide
Q4 guide
- Operating income €820M vs ~€813M consensus (LSEG), revenue €5.2bn, gross margin 33.8%
- Subs to 316M (about +10M) vs ~314.7M expected. MAUs 818M, a touch below the ~819M estimate
Tape: up about 4–5% pre-market, and Reuters' ticker showed it running closer to +10% after the open. It's moving against a Nasdaq that is down 1.5%, which makes it one of the cleaner relative-strength names today.
For scalpers: gaps on an "EPS miss, guide beat" story can be choppy once the first buyers are filled. I'd want to see the opening range high hold before adding, and I'd keep the size modest given how fast it has already extended.
Sources: [Spotify Q3 release](https://newsroom.spotify.com/2026-10-22 ... -earnings/) | [Reuters via Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-ma ... ts-4965232) | [Music Business Worldwide on the guide](https://www.musicbusinessworldwide.com/ ... ers-in-q3/)
Do you trade the EPS line or the guide on prints like this? Anyone fading the extension, or is SPOT a trend-day candidate?
The numbers (company release / Reuters)
- Q3 revenue €4.97bn (+16% y/y, +14% cc), roughly in line with ~€4.98bn expected
- Operating income €672M, in line. Gross margin 33.0%, up 136 bps y/y
- EPS €2.48 vs ~€2.80 expected. That's the miss
- Premium subs 306M (+9% y/y, +6M in the quarter, 1M above their own guide). MAUs 788M (+11% y/y), on guide
Q4 guide
- Operating income €820M vs ~€813M consensus (LSEG), revenue €5.2bn, gross margin 33.8%
- Subs to 316M (about +10M) vs ~314.7M expected. MAUs 818M, a touch below the ~819M estimate
Tape: up about 4–5% pre-market, and Reuters' ticker showed it running closer to +10% after the open. It's moving against a Nasdaq that is down 1.5%, which makes it one of the cleaner relative-strength names today.
For scalpers: gaps on an "EPS miss, guide beat" story can be choppy once the first buyers are filled. I'd want to see the opening range high hold before adding, and I'd keep the size modest given how fast it has already extended.
Sources: [Spotify Q3 release](https://newsroom.spotify.com/2026-10-22 ... -earnings/) | [Reuters via Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-ma ... ts-4965232) | [Music Business Worldwide on the guide](https://www.musicbusinessworldwide.com/ ... ers-in-q3/)
Do you trade the EPS line or the guide on prints like this? Anyone fading the extension, or is SPOT a trend-day candidate?