LRCX −6–8% AH despite record $8.22bn quarter: supply constraints push some December shipments into March, China share to
Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2026 6:28 am
The semicap group is set to open heavy. Lam closed −1% at ~$260.8 and traded ~$241–247 after hours. KLAC and AMAT were lower in sympathy.
What Lam said
- Fiscal Q1 revenue a record $8.22bn (+54% y/y) vs ~$8.15bn. Adj EPS $2.20 vs ~$2.18. Operating margin above 40% for the first time
- December-quarter guide: $8.6bn ± $0.4bn revenue, adj EPS $2.33 ± $0.15. That's a midpoint in line, not the big raise people were hoping for
- The CFO said the guide "would have been a bit higher" without near-term supplier constraints, and the affected shipments slip into March. He wouldn't confirm an analyst's $300–400M estimate
- China's share of revenue is expected to drop in the December quarter
- Bigger picture: 2026 WFE (wafer-fab equipment spending) seen in the mid-$150bn range, and 2027 above $200bn, led by DRAM
How I read it: this is about timing, not demand. Management is basically saying they could sell more if suppliers kept up. Still, the stock was already on its third straight losing week into the print, and an "in-line" guide doesn't satisfy a crowded long.
For the open: LRCX, KLAC and AMAT gapping down together, with SMH/SOXX after yesterday's >2% rally in SOXX. I'd watch whether memory names (MU) hold up, since the DRAM-led 2027 WFE commentary is actually supportive for them. A clean relative-value setup could be semicap weak vs memory firm.
Sources: [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stock ... 05937.html) | [Lam call transcript](https://earningsapi.io/transcripts/lam- ... 2026-10-21) | [Investing.com AH movers](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-ma ... SI-4964053)
Does a "supply-limited" guide look like a dip to buy to you, or the start of a peak-cycle trade? Is anyone pairing LRCX against MU today?
What Lam said
- Fiscal Q1 revenue a record $8.22bn (+54% y/y) vs ~$8.15bn. Adj EPS $2.20 vs ~$2.18. Operating margin above 40% for the first time
- December-quarter guide: $8.6bn ± $0.4bn revenue, adj EPS $2.33 ± $0.15. That's a midpoint in line, not the big raise people were hoping for
- The CFO said the guide "would have been a bit higher" without near-term supplier constraints, and the affected shipments slip into March. He wouldn't confirm an analyst's $300–400M estimate
- China's share of revenue is expected to drop in the December quarter
- Bigger picture: 2026 WFE (wafer-fab equipment spending) seen in the mid-$150bn range, and 2027 above $200bn, led by DRAM
How I read it: this is about timing, not demand. Management is basically saying they could sell more if suppliers kept up. Still, the stock was already on its third straight losing week into the print, and an "in-line" guide doesn't satisfy a crowded long.
For the open: LRCX, KLAC and AMAT gapping down together, with SMH/SOXX after yesterday's >2% rally in SOXX. I'd watch whether memory names (MU) hold up, since the DRAM-led 2027 WFE commentary is actually supportive for them. A clean relative-value setup could be semicap weak vs memory firm.
Sources: [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stock ... 05937.html) | [Lam call transcript](https://earningsapi.io/transcripts/lam- ... 2026-10-21) | [Investing.com AH movers](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-ma ... SI-4964053)
Does a "supply-limited" guide look like a dip to buy to you, or the start of a peak-cycle trade? Is anyone pairing LRCX against MU today?