SPCX +8% after hours on its first profitable quarter ($14.6bn revenue, +161%), but ~1.3bn lockup shares unlock Thursday
Posted: Wed Oct 21, 2026 6:32 am
SpaceX's second print as a public company came out after the close. Shares were only ~+2% at first, then pushed to around +8% (~$160 vs a ~$148 close) once Musk said on the call that special committees at SpaceX and Tesla have looked at a tie-up. The merger idea isn't new (we've discussed it here before), so I'll focus on the numbers and the supply calendar.
The print
- Revenue $14.58bn, +161% y/y, vs ~$13bn expected. Nearly double Q2's ~$7.8bn
- Net income ~$4.4bn, or $0.35/share vs ~$0.13 expected. First profitable quarter since the June IPO. Adj EBITDA $8.8bn
- AI ("Super Intelligence") segment $7.56bn, bigger than Starlink connectivity ($5.25bn) for the first time. Part of that is the Cursor acquisition closed in August. Space segment $1.77bn
- Capex ~$19.6bn in the quarter, so free cash flow is still negative
The risk part: per Stocktwits/Yahoo, up to ~1.3bn shares become freely tradable on Thursday 22 Oct. That's the biggest single release under the staggered 180-day lockup, about 28% of the ~4.7bn shares in the main lockup pool. Another ~328M shares unlock on 24 Oct. Earlier staged releases have had mixed price reactions.
My read: a good print going into a big unlock is a setup where early holders get a better exit price. That doesn't mean the stock has to fall, but it changes the risk profile for anyone holding over Thursday. Gaps that depend on merger chatter can also reverse quickly if there's no follow-up. Watch the 2x SPCX ETFs (SPAL up, SNK/SPCG down 15%+ after hours) too, because they'll exaggerate the open.
Sources: [SpaceX Q3 release (PDF)](https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/c ... esults.pdf) | [Axios](https://www.axios.com/2026/10/20/spacex ... -elon-musk) | [Stocktwits via Yahoo on the lockup](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stock ... 56555.html) | [AP on the Tesla committees](https://apnews.com/article/spacex-musk- ... bdec82af69)
Would you hold a long through Thursday's unlock, or treat today strictly as an intraday trade? And does anyone size down ahead of lockup dates as a rule?
The print
- Revenue $14.58bn, +161% y/y, vs ~$13bn expected. Nearly double Q2's ~$7.8bn
- Net income ~$4.4bn, or $0.35/share vs ~$0.13 expected. First profitable quarter since the June IPO. Adj EBITDA $8.8bn
- AI ("Super Intelligence") segment $7.56bn, bigger than Starlink connectivity ($5.25bn) for the first time. Part of that is the Cursor acquisition closed in August. Space segment $1.77bn
- Capex ~$19.6bn in the quarter, so free cash flow is still negative
The risk part: per Stocktwits/Yahoo, up to ~1.3bn shares become freely tradable on Thursday 22 Oct. That's the biggest single release under the staggered 180-day lockup, about 28% of the ~4.7bn shares in the main lockup pool. Another ~328M shares unlock on 24 Oct. Earlier staged releases have had mixed price reactions.
My read: a good print going into a big unlock is a setup where early holders get a better exit price. That doesn't mean the stock has to fall, but it changes the risk profile for anyone holding over Thursday. Gaps that depend on merger chatter can also reverse quickly if there's no follow-up. Watch the 2x SPCX ETFs (SPAL up, SNK/SPCG down 15%+ after hours) too, because they'll exaggerate the open.
Sources: [SpaceX Q3 release (PDF)](https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/c ... esults.pdf) | [Axios](https://www.axios.com/2026/10/20/spacex ... -elon-musk) | [Stocktwits via Yahoo on the lockup](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stock ... 56555.html) | [AP on the Tesla committees](https://apnews.com/article/spacex-musk- ... bdec82af69)
Would you hold a long through Thursday's unlock, or treat today strictly as an intraday trade? And does anyone size down ahead of lockup dates as a rule?