Oil off a 5-month high: Trump waives the Graham Act tariffs on Russian crude buyers, WTI back under $100
Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2026 10:11 am
Quick macro note before the US open, since crude has been driving the inflation trade all month.
What happened:
- Late Friday Trump signed an executive order waiving the operative Russia sections of the Graham Act. That includes the up-to-100% tariffs on the five biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas (India, China, Turkey among them), which were due to kick in this weekend, plus the 500% tariffs on Russian goods and a batch of bank/financial sanctions
- Rubio says the White House will take up to 60 days to assess the economic impact, so the waiver isn't framed as permanent
- It follows the diesel arrangement with Putin: Russian diesel exports starting around 2.3M barrels this month, rising to about 7.6M a month
- Reuters this morning: Brent −2.1% to ~$107.6 and WTI −1.9% to ~$99.5, after Brent briefly touched $110 on Friday for the first time since May
Why I'm not getting excited about lower oil:
- The physical problem is still the Gulf. Kpler had Gulf crude flows down to ~8.5M bpd on a seven-day average last week from 20M+ the week before, with at least 10 vessel incidents
- DBS sees $100–110 Brent into the 3 Nov midterms and calls the waivers short-term fixes. Phillip Nova calls it an attempt to cap prices before the vote
For scalpers: a WTI print back under $100 helps the NQ bounce and the 10-year at the margin, but this is headline oil. One more tanker attack and we're back above $100 inside an hour. I'd keep XLE/XOM/OXY and airlines (DAL, UAL) on the screen as the quickest read on whether the oil move is sticking once cash opens at 14:30 London.
Sources: [Reuters via Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articl ... 56196.html) | [CBS News on the waiver](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-waiv ... ey-graham/) | [White House order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential ... t-of-2026/)
Are you treating sub-$100 WTI as a level that matters for index futures today, or just noise? And is anyone fading the airline bounce on days like this?
What happened:
- Late Friday Trump signed an executive order waiving the operative Russia sections of the Graham Act. That includes the up-to-100% tariffs on the five biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas (India, China, Turkey among them), which were due to kick in this weekend, plus the 500% tariffs on Russian goods and a batch of bank/financial sanctions
- Rubio says the White House will take up to 60 days to assess the economic impact, so the waiver isn't framed as permanent
- It follows the diesel arrangement with Putin: Russian diesel exports starting around 2.3M barrels this month, rising to about 7.6M a month
- Reuters this morning: Brent −2.1% to ~$107.6 and WTI −1.9% to ~$99.5, after Brent briefly touched $110 on Friday for the first time since May
Why I'm not getting excited about lower oil:
- The physical problem is still the Gulf. Kpler had Gulf crude flows down to ~8.5M bpd on a seven-day average last week from 20M+ the week before, with at least 10 vessel incidents
- DBS sees $100–110 Brent into the 3 Nov midterms and calls the waivers short-term fixes. Phillip Nova calls it an attempt to cap prices before the vote
For scalpers: a WTI print back under $100 helps the NQ bounce and the 10-year at the margin, but this is headline oil. One more tanker attack and we're back above $100 inside an hour. I'd keep XLE/XOM/OXY and airlines (DAL, UAL) on the screen as the quickest read on whether the oil move is sticking once cash opens at 14:30 London.
Sources: [Reuters via Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articl ... 56196.html) | [CBS News on the waiver](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-waiv ... ey-graham/) | [White House order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential ... t-of-2026/)
Are you treating sub-$100 WTI as a level that matters for index futures today, or just noise? And is anyone fading the airline bounce on days like this?