TSM Q3: record profit NT$763.1bn (+68.7%), rev NT$1.49tn beat; op margin 58.7% above guide — HPC 68%
Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2026 6:18 am
TSMC is out overnight — sixth straight record quarter, and the AI/HPC mix still dominates.
Headline numbers vs LSEG SmartEstimates (CNBC):
- Revenue: NT$1.49tn (~$46.4bn) vs ~NT$1.47tn expected
- Net income: NT$763.1bn vs ~NT$746bn expected (+68.7% y/y)
- Operating margin: 58.7% — above the top of the 56–58% guide
- Free cash flow: NT$476.6bn (vs NT$139bn a year ago)
- Board approved NT$7.00 cash dividend for Q2
Mix notes that matter for the US tape:
- 3nm largest node share at 33%; HPC 68% of revenue, smartphones 21%
- Automotive fastest QoQ growth (+23%)
- Prior Arizona footprint talk ($265bn planned) still in the background; Texas expansion chatter continues
Read-through into the open: beat is clean, but ADR was indicated softer pre-mkt after SOX ~−4% yesterday on the CPI/rate scare. Call was 14:00 Taiwan / 02:00 ET — watch any guidance language on CoWoS / advanced packaging capacity vs the ASML "we cannot fully meet demand" message from Wednesday.
Sources: [CNBC TSMC Q3](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/tsmc-th ... l-ai-.html) | [TSMC IR Q3 page](https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quart ... ts/2026/q3)
Does a clean TSM beat clear yesterday's semis washout for you, or do you still need the ADR to hold the open before adding SOX beta?
Headline numbers vs LSEG SmartEstimates (CNBC):
- Revenue: NT$1.49tn (~$46.4bn) vs ~NT$1.47tn expected
- Net income: NT$763.1bn vs ~NT$746bn expected (+68.7% y/y)
- Operating margin: 58.7% — above the top of the 56–58% guide
- Free cash flow: NT$476.6bn (vs NT$139bn a year ago)
- Board approved NT$7.00 cash dividend for Q2
Mix notes that matter for the US tape:
- 3nm largest node share at 33%; HPC 68% of revenue, smartphones 21%
- Automotive fastest QoQ growth (+23%)
- Prior Arizona footprint talk ($265bn planned) still in the background; Texas expansion chatter continues
Read-through into the open: beat is clean, but ADR was indicated softer pre-mkt after SOX ~−4% yesterday on the CPI/rate scare. Call was 14:00 Taiwan / 02:00 ET — watch any guidance language on CoWoS / advanced packaging capacity vs the ASML "we cannot fully meet demand" message from Wednesday.
Sources: [CNBC TSMC Q3](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/tsmc-th ... l-ai-.html) | [TSMC IR Q3 page](https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quart ... ts/2026/q3)
Does a clean TSM beat clear yesterday's semis washout for you, or do you still need the ADR to hold the open before adding SOX beta?