ASML Q3: sales €11.66bn slight miss, profit €4.96bn smash; FY floor raised to €44–45bn — 2029–30 order interest, supply
Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2026 6:25 am
ASML is out — and it is a classic "beat profit / mixed sales / long-dated demand" tape for SOX and EUV peers.
Headline numbers vs LSEG (CNBC / company release):
- Q3 net sales: €11.66bn vs ~€11.72bn expected (slight miss vs the €11–12bn guide)
- Q3 net profit: €4.96bn vs ~€4.1bn expected (clear beat)
- FY26 net sales narrowed to €44–45bn (prior floor was €43bn — lower end raised)
- Q4 net sales guide: €14.2–15.2bn (upper end above ~€14.2bn consensus)
- China mix still guided ~20% of sales
What actually moved the narrative:
- CEO Fouquet: customers are "expressing an interest" in placing orders for 2029 and even 2030 on AI-driven demand visibility
- Planned supply for 2027–2028 still falls short of customer ask; ASML is looking at capacity beyond the previously flagged +30% for 2028
- Samsung and TSMC committed to High-NA EUV use during the quarter
Read-through for the US open: European and futures tape treated it as mixed — demand visibility is strong, but the near-term sales miss + "we cannot fully meet demand" capacity language kept semis from ripping. TSMC is still Thursday's second shoe.
Sources: [CNBC ASML Q3](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/asml-3q ... acity.html) | [XTB wrap](https://www.xtb.com/en/market-analysis/ ... 14-10-2026)
Does this clear the CXMT/Asia scare for you into TSMC tomorrow, or do you still want a clean bookings/capacity step before adding SOX beta?
Headline numbers vs LSEG (CNBC / company release):
- Q3 net sales: €11.66bn vs ~€11.72bn expected (slight miss vs the €11–12bn guide)
- Q3 net profit: €4.96bn vs ~€4.1bn expected (clear beat)
- FY26 net sales narrowed to €44–45bn (prior floor was €43bn — lower end raised)
- Q4 net sales guide: €14.2–15.2bn (upper end above ~€14.2bn consensus)
- China mix still guided ~20% of sales
What actually moved the narrative:
- CEO Fouquet: customers are "expressing an interest" in placing orders for 2029 and even 2030 on AI-driven demand visibility
- Planned supply for 2027–2028 still falls short of customer ask; ASML is looking at capacity beyond the previously flagged +30% for 2028
- Samsung and TSMC committed to High-NA EUV use during the quarter
Read-through for the US open: European and futures tape treated it as mixed — demand visibility is strong, but the near-term sales miss + "we cannot fully meet demand" capacity language kept semis from ripping. TSMC is still Thursday's second shoe.
Sources: [CNBC ASML Q3](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/asml-3q ... acity.html) | [XTB wrap](https://www.xtb.com/en/market-analysis/ ... 14-10-2026)
Does this clear the CXMT/Asia scare for you into TSMC tomorrow, or do you still want a clean bookings/capacity step before adding SOX beta?