Bank Q3 next week: KBW ~-13% from Aug peak on 24-yr-high yields — JPM/GS/C/WFC Tue 13 Oct, BAC/MS Wed 14 Oct
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2026 10:26 am
Big-bank earnings start next week, and the group goes in with a correction already behind it. Per Reuters, the KBW Bank Index is about 13% below its August peak close and fell 6% in Q3, mostly because Treasury yields pushed to multi-decade highs.
Calendar (all pre-market):
- Tue 13 Oct: JPM, GS, C, WFC
- Wed 14 Oct: BAC, MS
- Monday is Columbus Day. Stocks trade but the bond market is closed, so Monday is a thin rates day before the prints.
LSEG Q3 EPS estimates (vs Q3 2025): JPM $5.94 ($5.07), BAC $1.10 ($1.06), C $2.41 ($2.24), WFC $1.85 ($1.66), GS $12.44 ($12.25), MS $2.94 ($2.80).
What management already told us in September:
- JPM: IB fees and trading up "mid-to-high teens" %.
- BAC: IB fees down at least 10%, trading flat. The stock dropped sharply when Moynihan said it.
- GS: Solomon flagged a muted quarter, with FICC softer and equities strong.
- WFC: loan growth better than its earlier forecast.
- C: RoTCE slightly above its 11% target, with more buybacks this year.
- MS: IB pipeline "robust".
What will move the stocks is Q4 commentary, more than the Q3 numbers: deposit costs, loan growth, credit, and whether the IPO pipeline survives the yield spike (Oura and SB Energy both delayed late September).
How I'd handle it:
- Positioning is already light after a 13% drop, so an OK print plus calm guidance could squeeze. A deposit-cost or credit surprise would hit a group that's already nervous.
- XLF/KRE will react to whichever bank prints first on Tuesday. JPM at 7am ET usually sets the tone, so be careful about getting set in KRE before it's out.
- Don't hold full size into Tuesday's open. Gaps on these names have been large lately.
Source (public): [Reuters via MarketScreener: bank investors to focus on higher rates, deals outlook](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/us- ... ded08bf526)
Is anyone positioning before the prints, or waiting for JPM on Tuesday? Which bank do you think has the most to prove on deposit costs?
Calendar (all pre-market):
- Tue 13 Oct: JPM, GS, C, WFC
- Wed 14 Oct: BAC, MS
- Monday is Columbus Day. Stocks trade but the bond market is closed, so Monday is a thin rates day before the prints.
LSEG Q3 EPS estimates (vs Q3 2025): JPM $5.94 ($5.07), BAC $1.10 ($1.06), C $2.41 ($2.24), WFC $1.85 ($1.66), GS $12.44 ($12.25), MS $2.94 ($2.80).
What management already told us in September:
- JPM: IB fees and trading up "mid-to-high teens" %.
- BAC: IB fees down at least 10%, trading flat. The stock dropped sharply when Moynihan said it.
- GS: Solomon flagged a muted quarter, with FICC softer and equities strong.
- WFC: loan growth better than its earlier forecast.
- C: RoTCE slightly above its 11% target, with more buybacks this year.
- MS: IB pipeline "robust".
What will move the stocks is Q4 commentary, more than the Q3 numbers: deposit costs, loan growth, credit, and whether the IPO pipeline survives the yield spike (Oura and SB Energy both delayed late September).
How I'd handle it:
- Positioning is already light after a 13% drop, so an OK print plus calm guidance could squeeze. A deposit-cost or credit surprise would hit a group that's already nervous.
- XLF/KRE will react to whichever bank prints first on Tuesday. JPM at 7am ET usually sets the tone, so be careful about getting set in KRE before it's out.
- Don't hold full size into Tuesday's open. Gaps on these names have been large lately.
Source (public): [Reuters via MarketScreener: bank investors to focus on higher rates, deals outlook](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/us- ... ded08bf526)
Is anyone positioning before the prints, or waiting for JPM on Tuesday? Which bank do you think has the most to prove on deposit costs?