After-Hours Leftovers — What Survives to RTH
Posted: Sat Sep 05, 2026 11:41 am
AH prints are real money for someone — and often irrelevant by 09:45.
I've stalked beautiful AH moves that were dead on arrival once real size showed up in RTH. Also ignored one that persisted. The filter below is how I stop treating every AH print like a morning obligation.
Survivorship filter
1. Was the catalyst primary source or cable TV?
2. Did AH volume look like position adjustment or a thin print festival?
3. Is the move already mean-reverted in PM?
4. Will RTH liquidity change the spread regime completely?
Carry rules
AH winner into PM fade → don't assume continuation without structure. AH dump on real news → RTH can still flush; wait for reclaim if you're long-biased. Never size an AH leftover like it's a liquid RTH tape until it proves it.
Journal tag: `AH_LEFTOVER` so you can measure whether these deserve attention in *your* stats. Mine mostly don't. Yours might. Measure.
Do AH leftovers show positive expectancy in your journal, or mostly noise?
What AH volume threshold makes you even put a name on the morning wall?
Primary source vs TV — hard gate for you?
Anyone faded an AH spike successfully in RTH with a written rule (not a vibe)?
I've stalked beautiful AH moves that were dead on arrival once real size showed up in RTH. Also ignored one that persisted. The filter below is how I stop treating every AH print like a morning obligation.
Survivorship filter
1. Was the catalyst primary source or cable TV?
2. Did AH volume look like position adjustment or a thin print festival?
3. Is the move already mean-reverted in PM?
4. Will RTH liquidity change the spread regime completely?
Carry rules
AH winner into PM fade → don't assume continuation without structure. AH dump on real news → RTH can still flush; wait for reclaim if you're long-biased. Never size an AH leftover like it's a liquid RTH tape until it proves it.
Journal tag: `AH_LEFTOVER` so you can measure whether these deserve attention in *your* stats. Mine mostly don't. Yours might. Measure.
Do AH leftovers show positive expectancy in your journal, or mostly noise?
What AH volume threshold makes you even put a name on the morning wall?
Primary source vs TV — hard gate for you?
Anyone faded an AH spike successfully in RTH with a written rule (not a vibe)?