Thu prep 8 Oct: 10y tagged 5.365% (highest since 2002), Brent back above $102 on Iran/Hormuz risk — claims 8:30 ET, PEP
Posted: Thu Oct 08, 2026 6:07 am
Morning from London. Futures are roughly flat (S&P and Nasdaq flat, Dow ~-0.1%, Russell ~-0.2%), but the two things that matter for the open are moving: yields and crude.
Where we left it Wednesday:
- S&P -0.22% to ~7,802, a step back from Tuesday's record. Dow -0.66%, Nasdaq -0.22%.
- 10y touched ~5.365% intraday, the highest since April 2002, and the 30y hit ~5.73% (highest since May 2002). The strong 10y auction and the FOMC minutes came after that. The 10y is now sitting around 5.30%.
Overnight:
- Brent ~$102.3 (+2%), WTI ~$89.9. NBC reported that the White House has discussed restarting large-scale US military operations in Iran in the coming weeks. Add the tanker attacks around Hormuz and Houthi strikes on Saudi airports, and the risk premium is back. The Gulf storm shut-ins are still in the background too.
- Asia was soft (KOSPI ~-2%).
Today (ET):
- ~6:00 PEP Q3 (call 8:15). Street is roughly $2.30 EPS on ~$24.98B revenue. The focus is North American snack volumes after the price cuts.
- 8:30 weekly jobless claims.
- DAL reports Friday before the open, so airlines may trade on crude today and on the guide tomorrow.
How I'm approaching it:
- Energy versus everything else. If Brent holds above $102, expect XLE/XOP strength and pressure on airlines, cruise lines and small caps.
- The 10y at 5.30% is the line. If it pushes back toward 5.36%, Wednesday's lows (~7,763 on the S&P) come into play. If it stays under 5.30%, the dip buyers who defended 7,760 yesterday probably try again.
- Keep size small into 8:30. Claims can move yields more than usual at these levels.
Sources (public): [CNBC: oil gains on Middle East tensions](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/08/oil-pri ... ormuz.html), [TipRanks: futures slip as oil and yields rise](https://www.tipranks.com/news/u-s-stock ... ury-yields)
Are you trading crude-sensitive names today or staying out until the 10y picks a side? Do you think 5.36% gets retested this week?
Where we left it Wednesday:
- S&P -0.22% to ~7,802, a step back from Tuesday's record. Dow -0.66%, Nasdaq -0.22%.
- 10y touched ~5.365% intraday, the highest since April 2002, and the 30y hit ~5.73% (highest since May 2002). The strong 10y auction and the FOMC minutes came after that. The 10y is now sitting around 5.30%.
Overnight:
- Brent ~$102.3 (+2%), WTI ~$89.9. NBC reported that the White House has discussed restarting large-scale US military operations in Iran in the coming weeks. Add the tanker attacks around Hormuz and Houthi strikes on Saudi airports, and the risk premium is back. The Gulf storm shut-ins are still in the background too.
- Asia was soft (KOSPI ~-2%).
Today (ET):
- ~6:00 PEP Q3 (call 8:15). Street is roughly $2.30 EPS on ~$24.98B revenue. The focus is North American snack volumes after the price cuts.
- 8:30 weekly jobless claims.
- DAL reports Friday before the open, so airlines may trade on crude today and on the guide tomorrow.
How I'm approaching it:
- Energy versus everything else. If Brent holds above $102, expect XLE/XOP strength and pressure on airlines, cruise lines and small caps.
- The 10y at 5.30% is the line. If it pushes back toward 5.36%, Wednesday's lows (~7,763 on the S&P) come into play. If it stays under 5.30%, the dip buyers who defended 7,760 yesterday probably try again.
- Keep size small into 8:30. Claims can move yields more than usual at these levels.
Sources (public): [CNBC: oil gains on Middle East tensions](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/08/oil-pri ... ormuz.html), [TipRanks: futures slip as oil and yields rise](https://www.tipranks.com/news/u-s-stock ... ury-yields)
Are you trading crude-sensitive names today or staying out until the 10y picks a side? Do you think 5.36% gets retested this week?