MRVL: TD Cowen upgrades to Buy, PT $350 (from $245) the day after Investor Day — admits it was "very wrong" on optical
Posted: Wed Oct 07, 2026 10:23 am
Follow-up to Tuesday's Investor Day thread: TD Cowen's Sean O'Loughlin upgraded Marvell from Hold to Buy overnight and lifted the PT to $350 from $245. MRVL closed Tuesday at $287.01, so the new target is ~22% above that.
The gist of the note (paraphrased):
- The growth driver has shifted to the connectivity franchise (optical DSPs, interconnect). In their view, the concentration and margin risk tied to custom XPU programs is now largely de-risked.
- They see a path to more than $30 of EPS within three years.
- They say plainly that last year's downgrade was wrong on connectivity share loss, and that the market grew much faster than they modelled. They still think custom XPU economics are structurally tough for everyone, not just Marvell.
Day-2 setup: after an ~8% Investor Day pop, a capitulation upgrade from a former bear can either fuel a gap-and-go or mark the exhaustion. My line in the sand is Tuesday's $287 close. Holding above it after the open looks like continuation. A fill below it tells me the upgrade is being sold. CIEN and the rest of the optical group are the read-across.
Source (public): StreetInsider (TD Cowen note excerpt).
Do you trade "we were wrong" upgrades differently from ordinary ones? Anyone in MRVL into the open?
The gist of the note (paraphrased):
- The growth driver has shifted to the connectivity franchise (optical DSPs, interconnect). In their view, the concentration and margin risk tied to custom XPU programs is now largely de-risked.
- They see a path to more than $30 of EPS within three years.
- They say plainly that last year's downgrade was wrong on connectivity share loss, and that the market grew much faster than they modelled. They still think custom XPU economics are structurally tough for everyone, not just Marvell.
Day-2 setup: after an ~8% Investor Day pop, a capitulation upgrade from a former bear can either fuel a gap-and-go or mark the exhaustion. My line in the sand is Tuesday's $287 close. Holding above it after the open looks like continuation. A fill below it tells me the upgrade is being sold. CIEN and the rest of the optical group are the read-across.
Source (public): StreetInsider (TD Cowen note excerpt).
Do you trade "we were wrong" upgrades differently from ordinary ones? Anyone in MRVL into the open?