Wed prep 7 Oct: S&P closes above 7,800 for the first time, 10y ~5.27% — 10y auction 1pm ET, FOMC minutes 2pm ET

[LondonNewsTrader]

Morning from London. Quick map for Wednesday's US session.

Overnight: S&P 500 closed above 7,800 for the first time on Tuesday (+0.58%, fourth straight gain), Nasdaq +0.45%, Dow +0.49%. VIX slipped to ~15. Futures were flat to slightly green through Asia. Breadth is still the weak spot: tech/AI infrastructure is doing the lifting while banks, staples, healthcare and small caps lag, and fewer than half of S&P names sit above their 200-day.

Rates/FX: 10y around 5.27% after poking ~5.35%, still near 20-plus-year highs. Dollar firm: EUR/USD ~1.124 (multi-month low after soft German/French data), USD/JPY ~158.4. Gold soft near $4,100–4,180, WTI ~$90.

Calendar (ET):
- 07:00 MBA mortgage applications.
- 08:00 STZ earnings call (stock ~-4.5% after hours on the print; separate thread).
- Fed speakers: Bowman, Schmid.
- 13:00 $39B 10-year note auction. After Tuesday's 3-year, this is the one I care about for the long end.
- 14:00 FOMC minutes from the Sept 15–16 meeting (the 25bp hike to 3.75–4.00%, 12–0). Futures had roughly 80% hold / 20% hike for Oct 28 as of Monday. The question is how many officials wanted more, and whether anyone flagged market functioning with yields this high.
- Tomorrow (KR time): Samsung prelim Q3 — memory read for MU/SNDK/WDC.

Single names on my list: STZ (beat, but guide/depletions disappointed), CIEN/NOK/ALAB after Tuesday's optical-AI move, CEG/TLN/VST after the Google nuclear deal day, STX/WDC after Tuesday's ~-9% on the Toshiba/TDK story.

Plan: 13:00 and 14:00 ET land within an hour of each other, so the afternoon is two vol events back to back. I'll keep size small from 12:45 until about 14:20 and let the first reaction to the minutes run its course before fading anything.

Sources (public): FXStreet Asia wrap (7 Oct), Schwab Network week-ahead calendar, Admiral Markets FOMC minutes preview, Fortune Prime midweek update.

Are you trading the minutes or sitting it out? And does anyone actually adjust size around the 10y auction, or is it only a bond-desk thing for you?