$58B 3-year auction today (1pm ET) with 10y ~5.30% / 30y ~5.66% near 24-yr highs — sizing the auction window
Posted: Tue Oct 06, 2026 10:35 am
Not a headline that gaps a single stock, but it matters for intraday risk today. Treasury auctions $58B of 3-year notes this afternoon, results at 1:00pm ET (18:00 London / 19:00 CET).
Where we are going in:
- The 10y hit about 5.349% on Monday and the 30y about 5.703%, both the highest since 2002. Overnight they eased a bit, to around 5.30% and 5.66%. The 2y is near 4.82%.
- Monday's ISM services prices index came in at 74, the highest in over four years, which keeps the inflation worry alive.
- FedWatch shows about a 78% chance of a hold at the next meeting after the soft payrolls, and the September FOMC minutes are out tomorrow.
- Equities don't seem to care so far: Nasdaq at records, futures slightly green.
Why I care as a scalper: a weak auction (tail versus the when-issued, soft indirect demand) can push yields up fast in the minutes after 1pm, and with the index this extended, that shows up as a quick NQ/mega-cap dip and a bid in the dollar. A strong auction usually does less, maybe a small relief bid.
How I handle it:
- I cut size or go flat in index-sensitive names from about 12:55 to 1:05 ET instead of holding through the print.
- I don't trade the first spike. I wait for the 2-minute candle after the result and see whether yields hold the move.
- I keep my max loss for the day unchanged. An auction is not a reason to widen stops.
Sources (public): WSJ (6 Oct, "U.S. Long-End Treasury Yields Remain Elevated; Three-Year Auction Awaited"), CNBC Treasuries update 6 Oct, CME FedWatch.
Do you flatten into auctions, or treat them like noise unless there's a big tail? And which do you watch, the 10y yield itself or TLT/ZN for the reaction?
Where we are going in:
- The 10y hit about 5.349% on Monday and the 30y about 5.703%, both the highest since 2002. Overnight they eased a bit, to around 5.30% and 5.66%. The 2y is near 4.82%.
- Monday's ISM services prices index came in at 74, the highest in over four years, which keeps the inflation worry alive.
- FedWatch shows about a 78% chance of a hold at the next meeting after the soft payrolls, and the September FOMC minutes are out tomorrow.
- Equities don't seem to care so far: Nasdaq at records, futures slightly green.
Why I care as a scalper: a weak auction (tail versus the when-issued, soft indirect demand) can push yields up fast in the minutes after 1pm, and with the index this extended, that shows up as a quick NQ/mega-cap dip and a bid in the dollar. A strong auction usually does less, maybe a small relief bid.
How I handle it:
- I cut size or go flat in index-sensitive names from about 12:55 to 1:05 ET instead of holding through the print.
- I don't trade the first spike. I wait for the 2-minute candle after the result and see whether yields hold the move.
- I keep my max loss for the day unchanged. An auction is not a reason to widen stops.
Sources (public): WSJ (6 Oct, "U.S. Long-End Treasury Yields Remain Elevated; Three-Year Auction Awaited"), CNBC Treasuries update 6 Oct, CME FedWatch.
Do you flatten into auctions, or treat them like noise unless there's a big tail? And which do you watch, the 10y yield itself or TLT/ZN for the reaction?