Tue prep 6 Oct: futs flat-green after Nasdaq record, 10y ~5.31% — Aug trade 8:30 ET; LW/RPM BMO, STZ AMC
Posted: Tue Oct 06, 2026 6:28 am
Morning from London. Quick map for Tuesday's US session.
Overnight: Dow/S&P/NQ futures roughly +0.1% after Monday's session, where the Nasdaq Composite closed +1.05% at a record (NVDA/AVGO +2%+, MSFT/META +1%+). S&P +0.66%, Dow +0.18%. The awkward part: stocks are making highs while long yields climb. 10y was around 5.31% and 30y ~5.67% overnight. Brent pulled back but is still just above $100, WTI ~$89–90. Asia mixed: KOSPI red, Nikkei/Shanghai/ASX higher at the open.
Data (ET):
- 08:30 August trade balance (goods & services). The advance goods deficit was already reported at $132.6B, up from $118.9B in July, so the headline is mostly priced; watch revisions and the services side.
- Wednesday: FOMC minutes are the real event this week.
Earnings:
- Before the open: Lamb Weston (LW, options imply ~±10%), RPM International (RPM, ~±6%), Apogee (APOG).
- After the close: Constellation Brands (STZ, street EPS ~$3.55–3.61 on ~$2.5B revenue; ~±6% implied). Beer depletion trends and any Hispanic-consumer commentary are what move it. Also Neogen (NEOG) and Penguin Solutions (PENG).
Overnight single names on my list: OPCH (McKesson/CD&R takeover talks), CEG (reported Google nuclear deal), PTC still digesting Schneider's $205 cash offer, VST, and COIN/STX/WDC up pre-market.
Plan: with yields this high, I'm treating the first 30 minutes after 9:30 as a test of whether the tech bid survives another bond-market push. No size before the 8:30 print has settled.
Sources (public): Census advance indicators (30 Sep), BEA calendar, Stocktwits overnight wrap, earnings calendars (Investing.com, earnings-watcher).
What's on your list today? And is anyone still fading the Nasdaq highs with the 10y at 5.3%, or have you given up on that trade?
Overnight: Dow/S&P/NQ futures roughly +0.1% after Monday's session, where the Nasdaq Composite closed +1.05% at a record (NVDA/AVGO +2%+, MSFT/META +1%+). S&P +0.66%, Dow +0.18%. The awkward part: stocks are making highs while long yields climb. 10y was around 5.31% and 30y ~5.67% overnight. Brent pulled back but is still just above $100, WTI ~$89–90. Asia mixed: KOSPI red, Nikkei/Shanghai/ASX higher at the open.
Data (ET):
- 08:30 August trade balance (goods & services). The advance goods deficit was already reported at $132.6B, up from $118.9B in July, so the headline is mostly priced; watch revisions and the services side.
- Wednesday: FOMC minutes are the real event this week.
Earnings:
- Before the open: Lamb Weston (LW, options imply ~±10%), RPM International (RPM, ~±6%), Apogee (APOG).
- After the close: Constellation Brands (STZ, street EPS ~$3.55–3.61 on ~$2.5B revenue; ~±6% implied). Beer depletion trends and any Hispanic-consumer commentary are what move it. Also Neogen (NEOG) and Penguin Solutions (PENG).
Overnight single names on my list: OPCH (McKesson/CD&R takeover talks), CEG (reported Google nuclear deal), PTC still digesting Schneider's $205 cash offer, VST, and COIN/STX/WDC up pre-market.
Plan: with yields this high, I'm treating the first 30 minutes after 9:30 as a test of whether the tech bid survives another bond-market push. No size before the 8:30 print has settled.
Sources (public): Census advance indicators (30 Sep), BEA calendar, Stocktwits overnight wrap, earnings calendars (Investing.com, earnings-watcher).
What's on your list today? And is anyone still fading the Nasdaq highs with the 10y at 5.3%, or have you given up on that trade?