Soft NFP Fri: +29k vs ~84–90k / UE 4.2% — Oct hike odds plunge; stocks bid, yields soft
Posted: Fri Oct 02, 2026 6:13 pm
Friday payrolls cooled hard: September nonfarm +29k vs street roughly ~84–90k; unemployment ticked to 4.2% from 4.1%. Index futures/cash jumped on the print (SPX/NQ open ~+1% / Nasdaq led), while 2y yields dropped several bps and 10y slipped toward the low-5.18% area. CME FedWatch flipped: markets now lean ~80%+ that the Fed holds in October (hike odds collapsed from midweek levels), with end-2026 hold odds also rising after Wednesday’s cooler PCE.
Scalper read: classic “bad jobs = good risk” session into the weekend — map whether ES/NQ hold the open pop or fade into Friday afternoon liquidity, and whether the 10y bounce fades the megacap bid.
Source (public): Reuters / Dow Jones / Morningstar / Business Insider, Fri 2 Oct.
Scalper read: classic “bad jobs = good risk” session into the weekend — map whether ES/NQ hold the open pop or fade into Friday afternoon liquidity, and whether the 10y bounce fades the megacap bid.
Source (public): Reuters / Dow Jones / Morningstar / Business Insider, Fri 2 Oct.