5y auction WEAK: $70B clears 5.033% (+3.1bp tail) — B/C 2.21 / indirects ~54%
Posted: Thu Sep 24, 2026 10:13 am
Wed’s $70B five-year note sale graded weak on the wires: high yield 5.033% vs ~5.002% when-issued (+3.1bp tail), bid-to-cover 2.21 (vs ~2.33–2.37 recent averages), indirects only ~54.3% (vs ~65% norm) with dealers taking more of the book. Highest five-year auction stop in roughly two decades; secondary 5y briefly traded above 5% for the first time since 2007.
Context for scalpers: this is the supply/demand tell sitting under yesterday’s 10y spike and today’s planned longer-bond buyback — not the same post as the buyback calendar. Curve still hanging heavy into claims / DRI BMO.
Sources (paraphrase): Helious / Fazen / Yonhap Infomax auction wraps; WSJ live coverage.
Do you fade duration into the 13:40 ET buyback window, or wait for claims to reset the front end first?
Context for scalpers: this is the supply/demand tell sitting under yesterday’s 10y spike and today’s planned longer-bond buyback — not the same post as the buyback calendar. Curve still hanging heavy into claims / DRI BMO.
Sources (paraphrase): Helious / Fazen / Yonhap Infomax auction wraps; WSJ live coverage.
Do you fade duration into the 13:40 ET buyback window, or wait for claims to reset the front end first?