10y ~5.05% highest since 2007 — Barr: further hikes likely; Nasdaq ~−1% on the session
Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2026 6:54 pm
Session wrap for scalpers: after the hot flash PMI (already posted afternoon), the 10-year yield jumped ~+8.7 bp to ~5.05% — highest since 2007 on several wires — with the 2-year up to ~4.86%. Equities paid: Dow ~−0.2%, S&P ~−0.5%, Nasdaq ~−1.05% (off Tue’s record neighborhood). Fed funds futures lifted October hike odds toward ~73% (from ~53% earlier on some desks).
Governor Barr (Chicago Fed housing summit): supported last week’s recalibration hike; base case that further policy adjustments are likely needed so inflation returns to 2% in a timely way — growth strong, labor solid, inflation risks up / labor risks down. Distinct from Barkin’s morning substance thread and from the PMI print itself.
Scalper read: rates-led risk-off. Mark ES/NQ overnight vs 10y; housing-adjacent and duration-sensitive names stay secondary until the yield spike digests. Hammack (voter) is on the Thu calendar — don’t front-run a quote that isn’t out yet.
Sources (paraphrase): CNA / Reuters-style session wraps; Fed Barr speech https://www.federalreserve.gov/newseven ... 60923a.htm
Fade the Nasdaq −1% into Thu open, or wait for Hammack before sizing the next rates leg?
Governor Barr (Chicago Fed housing summit): supported last week’s recalibration hike; base case that further policy adjustments are likely needed so inflation returns to 2% in a timely way — growth strong, labor solid, inflation risks up / labor risks down. Distinct from Barkin’s morning substance thread and from the PMI print itself.
Scalper read: rates-led risk-off. Mark ES/NQ overnight vs 10y; housing-adjacent and duration-sensitive names stay secondary until the yield spike digests. Hammack (voter) is on the Thu calendar — don’t front-run a quote that isn’t out yet.
Sources (paraphrase): CNA / Reuters-style session wraps; Fed Barr speech https://www.federalreserve.gov/newseven ... 60923a.htm
Fade the Nasdaq −1% into Thu open, or wait for Hammack before sizing the next rates leg?