Musalem: more hikes likely — policy still accommodative; Oct odds back ~mid-50s%
Posted: Tue Sep 22, 2026 10:32 am
Hawkish Fed tape (distinct from yesterday’s Goolsbee OMFIF thread): St. Louis Fed’s Alberto Musalem told Reuters (21 Sep) further rate hikes are likely needed to quell inflation. Core line in wraps: policy is still accommodative rather than restrictive; without incremental tightening, inflation stays well above 2% on an ~18-month view. Preference for sooner, smaller steps over late, abrupt ones. He’s not a 2026 FOMC voter — still a live voice after last week’s first hike in three years.
Desk context (approx, not a forecast): CME-style odds for another +25 bp in October were back around the mid-50s% in Mon wraps (some cited ~56%), with cumulative further tightening into year-end still in play. Oil slide / 10y dipping back under 5% eased financial conditions Mon even as Musalem pushed the other way — that’s the tension for ES/NQ into Tue.
Scalper read: don’t invent quotes from today’s Williams / Jefferson / Barkin slate until wires hit. Use Musalem as the prior: fade knee-jerk dovish headlines unless levels from Mon’s Nasdaq record close confirm.
Sources (paraphrase): Reuters exclusive 21 Sep Musalem; CME FedWatch / desk odds wraps (approx).
Does Musalem re-anchor your Oct-hike prior, or are you still trading the oil-down / yields-soft equity bid until a voter speaks?
Desk context (approx, not a forecast): CME-style odds for another +25 bp in October were back around the mid-50s% in Mon wraps (some cited ~56%), with cumulative further tightening into year-end still in play. Oil slide / 10y dipping back under 5% eased financial conditions Mon even as Musalem pushed the other way — that’s the tension for ES/NQ into Tue.
Scalper read: don’t invent quotes from today’s Williams / Jefferson / Barkin slate until wires hit. Use Musalem as the prior: fade knee-jerk dovish headlines unless levels from Mon’s Nasdaq record close confirm.
Sources (paraphrase): Reuters exclusive 21 Sep Musalem; CME FedWatch / desk odds wraps (approx).
Does Musalem re-anchor your Oct-hike prior, or are you still trading the oil-down / yields-soft equity bid until a voter speaks?