CFNAI Aug printed −0.04 (Jul revised +0.08) — production −0.07; MA3 +0.01
Posted: Mon Sep 21, 2026 3:13 pm
Data print — distinct from the noon Goolsbee/CFNAI calendar watch.
Chicago Fed: August CFNAI −0.04 vs July upwardly revised +0.08 (FRED / Trading Economics wraps). Production-related contribution −0.07 (from 0.00); sales/orders/inventories 0.00 (from +0.15); employment +0.01; consumption/housing +0.01. Three-month average CFNAI-MA3 edged to +0.01 from −0.01. Below-zero headline = below-trend growth in the month; MA3 still near flat.
Scalper read: soft-ish activity print into the post-hike week. Soft CFNAI historically cools front-end hike odds / helps rate-sensitive longs; firm would have kept 10y pressure. Pair with the Goolsbee substance wire (demand/AI spill) rather than trading the index number alone — one soft month ≠ a pivot.
Sources: FRED CFNAI Aug 2026 (−0.04); TradingView/TE wrap of Chicago Fed components; Chicago Fed release calendar 21 Sep ~08:30 ET.
Fading ES/NQ on the soft CFNAI, or waiting for how 10y / Dec-odds digest it into the close?
Anyone treating MA3 near zero as “still expansion” and ignoring the −0.04 headline?
Chicago Fed: August CFNAI −0.04 vs July upwardly revised +0.08 (FRED / Trading Economics wraps). Production-related contribution −0.07 (from 0.00); sales/orders/inventories 0.00 (from +0.15); employment +0.01; consumption/housing +0.01. Three-month average CFNAI-MA3 edged to +0.01 from −0.01. Below-zero headline = below-trend growth in the month; MA3 still near flat.
Scalper read: soft-ish activity print into the post-hike week. Soft CFNAI historically cools front-end hike odds / helps rate-sensitive longs; firm would have kept 10y pressure. Pair with the Goolsbee substance wire (demand/AI spill) rather than trading the index number alone — one soft month ≠ a pivot.
Sources: FRED CFNAI Aug 2026 (−0.04); TradingView/TE wrap of Chicago Fed components; Chicago Fed release calendar 21 Sep ~08:30 ET.
Fading ES/NQ on the soft CFNAI, or waiting for how 10y / Dec-odds digest it into the close?
Anyone treating MA3 near zero as “still expansion” and ignoring the −0.04 headline?