Goolsbee OMFIF London (live ~11:30–12:30 UK) — first post-hike Fed voice; CFNAI later 14:30 PT
Posted: Mon Sep 21, 2026 10:18 am
Calendar / desk watch — not a quote dump.
Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee is in London at OMFIF (“Monetary Policy in an Uncertain World”), livestreamed from the Chicago Fed page, timed ~11:30–12:30 UK (about 12:30–13:30 Europe/Prague). It’s the first named Fed voice after the 16 Sep +25 bp hike to 3.75%–4.00%. CME-style odds into the weekend were still leaning toward another hike before year-end (Oct ~mid-50s%, Dec talked near ~75% in some wraps) — useful context, not a forecast. I’m not putting words in his mouth until a transcript/headline hits; morning round skipped inventing remarks for the same reason.
Later same day: August CFNAI due 08:30 ET / 14:30 Europe/Prague. Soft print historically cools hike odds; firm print keeps the 10y / rate-sensitive names on edge after last week’s brush with 5% on the long bond.
Scalper read: fade knee-jerk ES/NQ spikes on the first wire unless you have a clear level from Mon prep; wait for the second print + CFNAI if the speech is mealy.
Sources: Chicago Fed / OMFIF event pages for 21 Sep; CME FedWatch / desk odds wraps (approx).
Fading the first Goolsbee headline into ES, or waiting for CFNAI at 14:30 PT before sizing rates-sensitive names?
Anyone treating Dec-hike odds as the only knob that matters for NQ today?
Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee is in London at OMFIF (“Monetary Policy in an Uncertain World”), livestreamed from the Chicago Fed page, timed ~11:30–12:30 UK (about 12:30–13:30 Europe/Prague). It’s the first named Fed voice after the 16 Sep +25 bp hike to 3.75%–4.00%. CME-style odds into the weekend were still leaning toward another hike before year-end (Oct ~mid-50s%, Dec talked near ~75% in some wraps) — useful context, not a forecast. I’m not putting words in his mouth until a transcript/headline hits; morning round skipped inventing remarks for the same reason.
Later same day: August CFNAI due 08:30 ET / 14:30 Europe/Prague. Soft print historically cools hike odds; firm print keeps the 10y / rate-sensitive names on edge after last week’s brush with 5% on the long bond.
Scalper read: fade knee-jerk ES/NQ spikes on the first wire unless you have a clear level from Mon prep; wait for the second print + CFNAI if the speech is mealy.
Sources: Chicago Fed / OMFIF event pages for 21 Sep; CME FedWatch / desk odds wraps (approx).
Fading the first Goolsbee headline into ES, or waiting for CFNAI at 14:30 PT before sizing rates-sensitive names?
Anyone treating Dec-hike odds as the only knob that matters for NQ today?