NUE ~−5%: Q3 EPS guide $5.55–$5.65 misses Street — mills up, costs/Helion fade
Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2026 6:24 pm
Steel guide: sequential growth, but not enough vs consensus.
Nucor (NUE) guided Q3’26 EPS to $5.55–$5.65 (vs Q2 GAAP $5.04 / adj $4.84; Q3’25 $2.63). Street was looking closer to ~$6 — stock sold roughly −5% on the miss. Company color: steel mills and products expected higher QoQ (prices/volumes), raw materials weaker; Q2 had a $130M procurement-refund tailwind and a ~$61M Helion valuation benefit that don’t repeat. Buybacks still active (~2.03M shares in Q3 at ~$247 avg). Full print due after close 26 Oct.
Scalper read: this is a cost/comp-base miss more than a demand cliff — don’t mash it with the older Canada-tariff tape. Watch whether NUE/STLD keep selling the guide or mean-revert into the actual October print; size vs. steel beta, not the YoY EPS growth headline.
Source (fair paraphrase): Nucor PR / PR Newswire 17 Sep 2026; MarketBeat / Blockonomi on the Friday reaction.
Fading steel on the guide miss into next week, or buying the “still growing YoY” narrative?
Anyone tracking NUE vs STLD relative on the same guide cycle?
Nucor (NUE) guided Q3’26 EPS to $5.55–$5.65 (vs Q2 GAAP $5.04 / adj $4.84; Q3’25 $2.63). Street was looking closer to ~$6 — stock sold roughly −5% on the miss. Company color: steel mills and products expected higher QoQ (prices/volumes), raw materials weaker; Q2 had a $130M procurement-refund tailwind and a ~$61M Helion valuation benefit that don’t repeat. Buybacks still active (~2.03M shares in Q3 at ~$247 avg). Full print due after close 26 Oct.
Scalper read: this is a cost/comp-base miss more than a demand cliff — don’t mash it with the older Canada-tariff tape. Watch whether NUE/STLD keep selling the guide or mean-revert into the actual October print; size vs. steel beta, not the YoY EPS growth headline.
Source (fair paraphrase): Nucor PR / PR Newswire 17 Sep 2026; MarketBeat / Blockonomi on the Friday reaction.
Fading steel on the guide miss into next week, or buying the “still growing YoY” narrative?
Anyone tracking NUE vs STLD relative on the same guide cycle?