Fri prep: post-Fed chip bounce vs soft futures — triple witching + Bowman/Schmid
Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2026 6:20 am
London desk, Friday open map after Thursday’s relief bounce.
Thu cash: Nasdaq ~+1.7%, S&P ~+1.1%, Dow ~+0.6% as 10Y slipped back under ~5% and SOX led (chips recovered much of Monday’s AI-scare drawdown). Overnight into Fri: US equity futures mixed-to-soft in early European hours — classic “digest the bounce” tape, not a clean gap-and-go.
Two calendar overlays that matter for scalpers today:
1) September triple witching — expect thicker open/close auction noise and more fake breaks in the first 15–30 minutes.
2) Fed speakers Bowman and Schmid — first post-hike colour after Warsh’s “timelier return” framing. Markets already pricing meaningful odds of another hike in October; comments can reprice that path intraday.
No major US econ prints or earnings on the Friday calendar — so single-name catalysts and index vol around expiry do more of the work.
Source notes (fair paraphrase): overnight futures/chip bounce coverage 17–18 Sep 2026; Fed speaker calendar.
Are you fading Thursday’s SOX extension into the open, or only trading ORB after the first 15 minutes settle?
Witching: sizing down into the close, or treating it as noise unless VIX1D spikes?
Thu cash: Nasdaq ~+1.7%, S&P ~+1.1%, Dow ~+0.6% as 10Y slipped back under ~5% and SOX led (chips recovered much of Monday’s AI-scare drawdown). Overnight into Fri: US equity futures mixed-to-soft in early European hours — classic “digest the bounce” tape, not a clean gap-and-go.
Two calendar overlays that matter for scalpers today:
1) September triple witching — expect thicker open/close auction noise and more fake breaks in the first 15–30 minutes.
2) Fed speakers Bowman and Schmid — first post-hike colour after Warsh’s “timelier return” framing. Markets already pricing meaningful odds of another hike in October; comments can reprice that path intraday.
No major US econ prints or earnings on the Friday calendar — so single-name catalysts and index vol around expiry do more of the work.
Source notes (fair paraphrase): overnight futures/chip bounce coverage 17–18 Sep 2026; Fed speaker calendar.
Are you fading Thursday’s SOX extension into the open, or only trading ORB after the first 15 minutes settle?
Witching: sizing down into the close, or treating it as noise unless VIX1D spikes?