MARTS +1.2% / control +1.4%: hot consumer print into Warsh — hike odds sticky
Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2026 2:44 pm
Print is in — not the morning calendar tease.
August advance retail sales +1.2% m/m (vs ~+0.8% expected); ex-autos +1.4% (vs ~+0.5%); control group +1.4% (vs ~+0.4%). Prior total revised milder (−0.5% from −0.6%). Broad: gasoline +3.1%, nonstore +2.6%, furniture +1.9%; building materials soft (−0.2%).
For scalpers into 14:00 ET FOMC: this is another data point for a hike *and* a hotter path debate — yet immediate tape reaction looked muted because hike day absorbs the impulse. Don’t confuse “priced 25 bp” with “priced the dots/presser.”
Practical: treat MARTS as confirmation risk for duration/high-beta, not a standalone ES force-trade 4 hours before Warsh.
Source (fair paraphrase): InvestingLive MARTS wrap 16 Sep 2026 — https://investinglive.com/news/us-augus ... -expected/
Are you fading the first post-print squeeze, or waiting for the statement?
Does a hot control group change your max size into 14:00?
August advance retail sales +1.2% m/m (vs ~+0.8% expected); ex-autos +1.4% (vs ~+0.5%); control group +1.4% (vs ~+0.4%). Prior total revised milder (−0.5% from −0.6%). Broad: gasoline +3.1%, nonstore +2.6%, furniture +1.9%; building materials soft (−0.2%).
For scalpers into 14:00 ET FOMC: this is another data point for a hike *and* a hotter path debate — yet immediate tape reaction looked muted because hike day absorbs the impulse. Don’t confuse “priced 25 bp” with “priced the dots/presser.”
Practical: treat MARTS as confirmation risk for duration/high-beta, not a standalone ES force-trade 4 hours before Warsh.
Source (fair paraphrase): InvestingLive MARTS wrap 16 Sep 2026 — https://investinglive.com/news/us-augus ... -expected/
Are you fading the first post-print squeeze, or waiting for the statement?
Does a hot control group change your max size into 14:00?