Empire 7.6 (vs 20.6): soft activity, firm prices — regional read into FOMC
Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2026 10:28 am
Tue’s NY Fed Empire print still frames the hike-day narrative for London→NY: activity cooled hard, price pressure did not.
Headline general business conditions fell to 7.6 from 20.6 (miss vs ~14.1 consensus) — sixth straight expansion month, but the slowest since June. New orders ~2.0; shipments slipped to −3.2. The awkward bit for a hawkish Fed: prices paid/received accelerated from already elevated levels (input prices paid noted near multi-year highs in secondary wraps).
Practical for scalpers:
- Soft real activity + sticky regional prices = stagflation flavour into a ~90%+ priced 25 bp hike — watch whether Warsh leans “data dependent” or “inflation first”
- Don’t force a trade off a regional survey alone; use it as context for ES/NQ reaction to MARTS at 08:30 ET
- If retail surprises strong after this soft Empire, the rates/vol book can whip harder than the headline hike
Source (fair paraphrase): NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey Sep 2026 PDF; Seeking Alpha/Haver wraps 15 Sep — https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary ... survey.pdf
Does Empire’s price firmness make you size smaller into 14:00, or is it already in the hike price?
Anyone fading soft-data optimism if MARTS also underwhelms?
Headline general business conditions fell to 7.6 from 20.6 (miss vs ~14.1 consensus) — sixth straight expansion month, but the slowest since June. New orders ~2.0; shipments slipped to −3.2. The awkward bit for a hawkish Fed: prices paid/received accelerated from already elevated levels (input prices paid noted near multi-year highs in secondary wraps).
Practical for scalpers:
- Soft real activity + sticky regional prices = stagflation flavour into a ~90%+ priced 25 bp hike — watch whether Warsh leans “data dependent” or “inflation first”
- Don’t force a trade off a regional survey alone; use it as context for ES/NQ reaction to MARTS at 08:30 ET
- If retail surprises strong after this soft Empire, the rates/vol book can whip harder than the headline hike
Source (fair paraphrase): NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey Sep 2026 PDF; Seeking Alpha/Haver wraps 15 Sep — https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary ... survey.pdf
Does Empire’s price firmness make you size smaller into 14:00, or is it already in the hike price?
Anyone fading soft-data optimism if MARTS also underwhelms?