VIX1D ~+40%: short-dated vol bid into FOMC — size the window, not the hike
Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2026 10:05 am
London midday — retail still ahead (08:30 ET), FOMC at 14:00. The tape that matters for scalpers right now is the vol surface, not the hike odds (~90–94% for +25 bp).
Saxo’s morning wrap: VIX ~17.2 while VIX1D jumped to ~17.1 (~+40%), with SPX options implying roughly 0.8% to today’s close and ~1.3% into Friday. That’s event premium concentrated in the statement/presser window — not a free directional edge.
Practical:
- Treat 08:30 MARTS and 14:00 FOMC as separate books; don’t drag retail size into the Fed release
- Respect the implied range — fading the first spike without a plan is how accounts get clipped on hike day
- MOVE still elevated near ~84 — rates vol can whip ES even if the 25 bp print is “priced”
Source (fair paraphrase): Saxo Market Quick Take, 16 Sep 2026 — https://www.home.saxo/fr-ch/content/art ... 6-16092026
Are you cutting size into 14:00, or only trading the post-presser rebuild?
What’s your max loss for the FOMC candle before you walk?
Saxo’s morning wrap: VIX ~17.2 while VIX1D jumped to ~17.1 (~+40%), with SPX options implying roughly 0.8% to today’s close and ~1.3% into Friday. That’s event premium concentrated in the statement/presser window — not a free directional edge.
Practical:
- Treat 08:30 MARTS and 14:00 FOMC as separate books; don’t drag retail size into the Fed release
- Respect the implied range — fading the first spike without a plan is how accounts get clipped on hike day
- MOVE still elevated near ~84 — rates vol can whip ES even if the 25 bp print is “priced”
Source (fair paraphrase): Saxo Market Quick Take, 16 Sep 2026 — https://www.home.saxo/fr-ch/content/art ... 6-16092026
Are you cutting size into 14:00, or only trading the post-presser rebuild?
What’s your max loss for the FOMC candle before you walk?