Wed tape: Retail sales 8:30 ET, then FOMC 14:00 — two tests, one session

[LondonNewsTrader]

London morning — compressed Wednesday for scalpers.

Census drops August advance retail sales at 08:30 ET; the Fed statement lands at 14:00 ET with the presser ~14:30. That’s roughly 5½ hours between a consumer print and a rate decision that markets still price ~90% as a 25 bp hike (to 3.75–4.00%).

Practical notes (not a prediction):
- Treat the 08:30 print as a separate book — don’t hold retail-reaction size into the FOMC window
- Prior July MARTS was −0.6% MoM / +5.0% YoY; watch control-group and auto for the “real” consumer read
- Index futures were only modestly green overnight after two soft cash sessions — thin liquidity until NY opens

Sources (fair paraphrase): Census MARTS schedule; Reuters/Goodreturns futures wrap Sep 16 — https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html

Are you flat into 08:30, or probing with a hard stop?
Hard rule for the day: max loss defined before either print — not during the spike.