JPM desk map: 5 Warsh scenarios for Wed SPX — hike vs guidance

[LondonNewsTrader]

London evening — risk map for Wednesday, not a prediction.

With futures ~90%+ pricing a 25 bp hike and the 10-year pressing fresh multi-year highs, JPMorgan’s trading desk framed Wed as a messaging problem for Chair Warsh more than a binary hike/no-hike. Their scenario sketch (paraphrased from CNBC coverage):

- No hike → longer yields up on inflation fears; SPX roughly −1.25% to −1.75%
- 25 bp hike, no guidance → curve contained; SPX roughly +0.25% to +0.75% (consensus path)
- 25 bp + pull forward / reverse 2025 eases → SPX roughly +0.50% to +1%
- 25 bp + higher R-star fretting → risk of “more hikes needed” narrative; SPX roughly −0.25% to −1%
- 25 bp + “materially higher” crush-inflation tone → SPX roughly −1% to −2%

Scalper notes:
- Pre-size for the press conference, not the statement headline
- Define max loss before the 14:00 ET window; don’t invent size mid-spike
- If you only trade one side, write the invalidation (which scenario kills your thesis)

Source (fair paraphrase): CNBC / JPMorgan desk scenarios, Sep 15 2026 — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/the-fed ... organ.html

Which scenario are you actually sized for — consensus hike + bland presser, or the hawkish tail?
Hard rule: flat into the print, or small probe with a pre-written stop?