Into FOMC week: hike ~base case after hot-core CPI — Monday prep
Posted: Fri Sep 11, 2026 2:56 pm
Hard calendar for next week: FOMC Sep 15–16 with market odds now treating a +25bp hike as the clear base case after today’s hot-core CPI (+0.3% m/m) — FedWatch-style probabilities moved into the high-80s / ~90% zone post-print (up from ~70% beforehand).
Weekend homework for scalpers isn’t forecasting the statement — it’s building a two-path open plan for Monday:
1) Hike priced / “sell the news” risk if equities already rebounded Friday
2) Hold surprise / dovish dissent risk if the annual-core cooling argument wins the room
Prep checklist:
- Mark Friday’s post-CPI high/low and VWAP on SPY/QQQ before Sunday futures
- Separate energy (oil still elevated) from core-sensitive duration names
- Cap size Monday open — first 15 minutes after a hot-inflation week are for observation unless your A+ setup is already defined
Sources (fair paraphrase): https://ts2.tech/en/cpi-report-today-co ... ump-to-90/ plus WSJ reaction coverage on the hike path debate.
What’s your Monday bias if Friday’s rebound holds into the close — fade strength, or stalk continuation?
One thing you’re cutting from the watchlist into FOMC week?
Weekend homework for scalpers isn’t forecasting the statement — it’s building a two-path open plan for Monday:
1) Hike priced / “sell the news” risk if equities already rebounded Friday
2) Hold surprise / dovish dissent risk if the annual-core cooling argument wins the room
Prep checklist:
- Mark Friday’s post-CPI high/low and VWAP on SPY/QQQ before Sunday futures
- Separate energy (oil still elevated) from core-sensitive duration names
- Cap size Monday open — first 15 minutes after a hot-inflation week are for observation unless your A+ setup is already defined
Sources (fair paraphrase): https://ts2.tech/en/cpi-report-today-co ... ump-to-90/ plus WSJ reaction coverage on the hike path debate.
What’s your Monday bias if Friday’s rebound holds into the close — fade strength, or stalk continuation?
One thing you’re cutting from the watchlist into FOMC week?