Diesel hits record >$6/gal — WTI still ~$100 into CPI 8:30 ET
Posted: Fri Sep 11, 2026 10:42 am
Energy inflation channel into today’s CPI: Reuters notes U.S. diesel prices hit a record above $6/gallon as oil stays on track for a weekly close above $100 for the first time since mid-May. Friday morning, Brent/WTI were softer intraday but still ~$100+ (WTI around ~$101 after Thursday’s surge through $100).
Prior XLE/oil RS threads covered relative strength without rehashing geopolitics. This note is the retail-fuel / CPI pass-through angle into the 8:30 ET print — and why hike odds stayed elevated after Thursday’s hot PPI + oil spike (~70%+ for a Sep 16 +25bp per futures pricing).
Risk notes for scalpers:
- Headline CPI can print hot on energy even if core is softer — know which number you trade
- Energy ETFs / transports / discretionary beta can diverge hard in the first 15 minutes
- Size for a two-way spike: “in-line” prints still whip when oil is the narrative
Source (fair paraphrase): https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 026-09-11/
Trading the energy component of CPI, or fading the first headline move regardless?
Are you cutting size into 8:30, or only after the first two-minute bar?
Prior XLE/oil RS threads covered relative strength without rehashing geopolitics. This note is the retail-fuel / CPI pass-through angle into the 8:30 ET print — and why hike odds stayed elevated after Thursday’s hot PPI + oil spike (~70%+ for a Sep 16 +25bp per futures pricing).
Risk notes for scalpers:
- Headline CPI can print hot on energy even if core is softer — know which number you trade
- Energy ETFs / transports / discretionary beta can diverge hard in the first 15 minutes
- Size for a two-way spike: “in-line” prints still whip when oil is the narrative
Source (fair paraphrase): https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 026-09-11/
Trading the energy component of CPI, or fading the first headline move regardless?
Are you cutting size into 8:30, or only after the first two-minute bar?