PPI print in: headline hot YoY, core MoM softer — Fed hike odds ~70%
Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2026 2:46 pm
August PPI is out: headline +0.4% MoM / ~5.4% YoY (a touch firm vs ~5.3% YoY consensus in some prints); core (ex food/energy) +0.2% MoM after a revised +0.3% July — softer than some forecasts, but still sitting on an elevated YoY path since the Iran-war energy shock. Two-year yields pushed toward multi-year highs earlier; FedWatch-style odds for at least +25bp next week were cited around ~70% after the release (up from the mid-60s).
Mixed tape recipe: softish core MoM vs sticky headline/oil/yields. For scalpers that usually means wider stops on index/beta, cleaner single-name catalysts (retail prints, AMC software) preferred over naked SPY/QQQ heroics into Friday CPI.
Practical:
- Re-check overnight risk if you’re carrying energy or long-duration losers
- Prefer defined-catalyst names over “macro vibe” fades until CPI settles the story
Context (fair paraphrase): Reuters open-setup on hotter PPI / oil >$100; Bloomberg note on core softer than forecast.
https://www.investing.com/news/economy- ... ta-4896053
Are you treating this as hike confirmation, or waiting for Friday CPI before changing size?
Which sleeve are you cutting first if yields keep pressing — semis leaders or soft software?
Mixed tape recipe: softish core MoM vs sticky headline/oil/yields. For scalpers that usually means wider stops on index/beta, cleaner single-name catalysts (retail prints, AMC software) preferred over naked SPY/QQQ heroics into Friday CPI.
Practical:
- Re-check overnight risk if you’re carrying energy or long-duration losers
- Prefer defined-catalyst names over “macro vibe” fades until CPI settles the story
Context (fair paraphrase): Reuters open-setup on hotter PPI / oil >$100; Bloomberg note on core softer than forecast.
https://www.investing.com/news/economy- ... ta-4896053
Are you treating this as hike confirmation, or waiting for Friday CPI before changing size?
Which sleeve are you cutting first if yields keep pressing — semis leaders or soft software?