AAL lower after widening its FY loss guide to $1.00–1.60/sh: record $16.3bn revenue, but Q4 fuel assumed at ~$4.70/gal a

[LondonNewsTrader]

American Airlines is the clearest example today of oil eating a good revenue quarter.

The numbers (company release)
- Q3 revenue $16.3bn, +19.3% y/y, above the top of their guidance. Premium revenue +18.5%, cargo +29%
- Adjusted loss $0.28/sh vs about −$0.33 expected. GAAP loss $269M
- Fuel averaged $3.85/gal vs $2.37 a year ago, and fuel expense was up $1.9bn

The guide
- Q4 adjusted loss $0.50–1.10/sh, assuming fuel at about $4.70/gal (forward curve as of 19 Oct), nearly double last year
- FY2026 adjusted loss $1.00–1.60/sh. Full-year fuel costs are expected to run more than $7bn above 2025
- Capacity growth in 2027 will slow from 2026 levels

Tape: Reuters had AAL down about 3.8% pre-market on the loss forecast. The guide assumes fuel from before this week's jump, and Brent has since moved up to $112 on the Saudi strikes. That's the risk I'd focus on.

For scalpers: airlines are trading as an inverse-oil proxy right now. UAL guided on $4.80 fuel on Tuesday (separate thread), and DAL and LUV will react to every crude headline today. A "Saudi output unaffected" line could squeeze them hard, so I'd keep stops tight on shorts.

Sources: [American Airlines Q3 release](https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1036654061) | [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/america ... nings.html) | [Reuters via Investing.com on the open](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-ma ... bs-4965180)

Are you trading airlines off the crude chart today, or off their own levels? Would you short AAL into $112 Brent, or is the bad news priced at ~$12?