On **Replay protocol: 20 opens before live open size**, the desk standard stays practical. Paper that only practices calm middays lies. The open is a skill. Skills are rehearsed under open-shaped stress, not under convenient quiet.
A journal that does not change next week's size, skip, or sticky line is theater. Tags beat unexplained equity curves.
## Rails that stay on the sheet
- Reps before live open size.
- Feeling ready is not a metric.
- Invalidation written in cents or an auditable structure break before entry.
## Protocol
1. Pick twenty RTH opens across mixed regimes: trend, range, news, quiet, and at least a few ugly ones.
2. Same hotkeys, same first-fifteen rules, realistic slip assumptions in the journal even when the sim fills politely.
3. Pass bar written in advance — for example ≥90% plan adherence, zero daily-breaker breaches, journal complete every session.
4. Fail bar: skipped journals more than twice, rule changes mid-protocol without a version bump, or cherry-picked quiet days only.
5. After pass: live open size starts at the bottom of your range — not at the fantasy size from replay winners.
## Worked example — Live open size without replays
New ORB rules; live size day one. Replay protocol: 20 opens tagged; mistake rate under threshold; then micro live; then full.
I keep examples in cents and clock time so Sunday review can tag the behavior — not rewrite it as a mood.
## Failure modes
- Ignoring the rails above on **Replay protocol: 20 opens before live open size** and substituting confidence.
- Adding size after adverse selection because the story still feels right.
- Paying open microstructure tax that midday memory never modeled.
## When to skip
Skipping is a first-class decision — even when the chart still looks persuasive:
- Checklist incomplete at 09:20 ET — observe or one pre-written A+ only.
- Live spread outside max for that symbol and session bucket.
- Index violently disagrees with a single-name thesis and no reduced-size RS plan is on the sheet.
- Platform, hotkeys, locate, or flatten path unverified after reconnect/update.
- Daily loss, PDT slot, or prop buffer tripwire already touched.
- News/FOMC/CPI window where the size-cut card says stand down.
## Closing
For **Replay protocol: 20 opens before live open size**, keep operable boredom: written rails, measured cents, index context when relevant, and a skip that needs no apology. Process quality beats ticket volume.
Replay protocol: 20 opens before live open size
Replay protocol: 20 opens before live open size
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Replay follow-up: scoring the opens I would have skipped
Follow-up to my replay protocol thread. After a while, running replays of opens I'd have traded taught me less than I expected. I was grading my entries and nothing else. So I changed the protocol: now roughly every third replay is an open I would have skipped. I grade whether the skip was right.
## How the skip replay works
- Pick a recorded open where my pre-market notes said "skip" or "observe only." The note has to be written on the day. I can't make one up in hindsight.
- Replay from 09:25 to 10:00 ET at normal speed, not fast-forward.
- At each point where I'd have been tempted, pause and write down the entry, stop and target I'd have used.
- Play it forward and record the result in cents, then grade the skip decision: correct skip, costly skip, or unclear.
## Worked example (illustrative)
A replay from a CPI morning. My note said "observe until 09:45 ET, spreads wide." At 09:33 ET the replay shows a $58 name breaking the premarket high at 58.60. The tempting entry is 58.64 with a stop at 58.45, which is 19 cents and already past my 15-cent max for that name. I note it anyway.
It ran to 58.90 by 09:36 ET and then came back to 58.40 by 09:39 ET. With a fill and slip, the hypothetical trade could have been a small win or a stop-out, depending on how fast I sold. I grade it "correct skip": the stop didn't fit my rails, and the outcome was a coin flip.
A different replay: a quiet morning I skipped because I was tired. A clean A-grade ORB break at 09:48 ET would have fit every rail. I grade that one "costly skip" and write down the reason, which was fatigue and not the setup.
## Failure modes
- Choosing only skipped mornings that turned out to be bad, which just confirms my choices.
- Grading by outcome instead of by whether the trade fit the rails.
- Treating a "costly skip" as permission to trade tired next time.
## When to skip (the replay itself)
- If I don't have an on-the-day note for that session, it isn't eligible. Hindsight notes don't count.
- I don't do replays right after a live loss. I'll grade the tape in the same mood I lost in.
Diagram: a three-lane board for replay grading (correct skip, costly skip, unclear) with arrows from "skip note written on the day" into each lane.
## How the skip replay works
- Pick a recorded open where my pre-market notes said "skip" or "observe only." The note has to be written on the day. I can't make one up in hindsight.
- Replay from 09:25 to 10:00 ET at normal speed, not fast-forward.
- At each point where I'd have been tempted, pause and write down the entry, stop and target I'd have used.
- Play it forward and record the result in cents, then grade the skip decision: correct skip, costly skip, or unclear.
## Worked example (illustrative)
A replay from a CPI morning. My note said "observe until 09:45 ET, spreads wide." At 09:33 ET the replay shows a $58 name breaking the premarket high at 58.60. The tempting entry is 58.64 with a stop at 58.45, which is 19 cents and already past my 15-cent max for that name. I note it anyway.
It ran to 58.90 by 09:36 ET and then came back to 58.40 by 09:39 ET. With a fill and slip, the hypothetical trade could have been a small win or a stop-out, depending on how fast I sold. I grade it "correct skip": the stop didn't fit my rails, and the outcome was a coin flip.
A different replay: a quiet morning I skipped because I was tired. A clean A-grade ORB break at 09:48 ET would have fit every rail. I grade that one "costly skip" and write down the reason, which was fatigue and not the setup.
## Failure modes
- Choosing only skipped mornings that turned out to be bad, which just confirms my choices.
- Grading by outcome instead of by whether the trade fit the rails.
- Treating a "costly skip" as permission to trade tired next time.
## When to skip (the replay itself)
- If I don't have an on-the-day note for that session, it isn't eligible. Hindsight notes don't count.
- I don't do replays right after a live loss. I'll grade the tape in the same mood I lost in.
Diagram: a three-lane board for replay grading (correct skip, costly skip, unclear) with arrows from "skip note written on the day" into each lane.
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